Case-Shiller Home Price Report released today….
* Case-Shiller Home Price 10-City Index January: 196.05, down 2.3% from December and down 11.4% from January 2007;
* Case-Shiller Home Price 20-City Index January: 180.65, down 2.4 from December and down 10.7% from January 2007.
Trend:
* The 10-City Index has fallen month-month for 19 straight months after peaking at 226.29 in June 2006 and is at its lowest level since February 2005 (195.87). The 10-City Index has fallen year-year for 13 straight months;
* The year-year decline in the 10-City Index (on a percentage basis) is the steepest in the Index’s 21-year history; the month-month decline matched the drop recorded in December;
* The 20-City Index has fallen for 18 straight months, after peaking at 206.52 in July 2006 and is also at its lowest level since February 2005 (178.50). The month-month and year-year declines (on a percentage basis) are the steepest in the index’s eight year history;
* The largest year-year decline was in Las Vegas and Miami (19.3%) followed by Phoenix (18.2%), San Diego (26.7%) and Los Angeles (16.5%). Ten of the 20 cities tracked registered double-digit percentage year-year declines;
* Only Charlotte recorded a year-year increase: 1.8% compared with last month when Charlotte, Portland OR and Seattle registered gains;
* Month-month, values dropped in every city in the index led by a 5.1% decline in Las Vegas, followed by Phoenix (4.1%), Los Angeles (3.7%), Cleveland (3.2%) and Detroit and Minneapolis (3.0% each).
What it means: The decline in the Case/Shiller Index reaffirms the struggles in the housing sector, which were suggested in Monday’s report on existing home sales. Although unit sales were up in Monday’s report from the National Association of Realtors [NAR], the median sales price of an existing single family home fell, registering an 8.2% year-year decline.
The Case/Shiller report corroborates the price pressures that are likely to increase as foreclosures continue. Both the Case/Shiller and NAR reports increase the likelihood that more homeowners will be underwater, with mortgage debt exceeding the value of their home. That could pressure legislators to provide some debt relief and perhaps make Rep. Barney Frank’s, D-Mass., proposal–an echo of a suggestion offered by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke–encouraging lenders to write off some mortgage debts more appealing as a path out of the housing credit crunch.
Tags: case shiller report, harris real estate university, home prices falling, home sales data, march real estate market, real estate recession, tim and julie harris
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