The International Monetary Fund said there’s no end in sight to the U.S. housing recession and warned that deteriorating credit conditions for consumers and banks may prolong a period of slow economic growth.
“At the moment, a bottom for the housing market is not visible,” the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, released today in Washington. “Stemming the decline in the U.S. housing market is necessary for market stabilization as this would help both households and financial institutions to recover.”
The IMF, which a year ago failed to foresee the depth of the subprime mortgage collapse, stood by its April forecast for about $1 trillion in losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis. While U.S. policy makers have helped contain the financial losses, “credit risks remain elevated” and banks need to raise more capital.
Worldwide asset writedowns and losses have totaled $469 billion in the past year and $345 billion has been raised.
The Washington-based lender in the report said the Federal Reserve’s decisions to expand lending to Wall Street firms “have succeeded in containing systemic risks.” Still, weakness in housing threatens to extend the slump.
“The growing concern is that, with delinquencies and foreclosures in the U.S. housing market rising sharply, and house prices continuing to fall, loan deterioration is becoming more widespread,” the IMF said.
`Few Signs’
Jaime Caruana, head of the IMF’s capital market division, speaking to the press in Washington today, said housing data in the U.S. showed few signs of improvement. “Some indicators continue to go south,” he said. Improving affordability, he said, should at some point help the market recover.
Falling share prices are making it harder for banks to raise capital, increasing the risk of a downward spiral in the global economy, the IMF said. The outlook for banks may make investors reluctant to provide fresh funds needed to restore the strength of financial institutions, the fund said.
“As economic growth slows, banks will face continued headwinds in maintaining earnings due to falling credit quality, declining fee income, high funding costs, and exposures to monoline and mortgage insurers,” Jaime Caruana, director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets unit, said in a statement.
Fannie, Freddie
The fund warned that the frailty of the financial system would be increased by the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest sources of U.S. mortgage financing. Shares of both companies are down more than 80 percent in the past year.
The U.S. Congress two days ago passed legislation to stem foreclosures for 400,000 homeowners and aid Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, its most sweeping effort to halt the biggest housing slump since the Depression. President George W. Bush may sign the bill into law this week.
IMF economists said that the global holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt meant that “there would have been systemic consequences had confidence in the debt come into question.”
The report said oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was too weak. “Part of the problem stems from the current regulatory framework, which has allowed their balance sheets to expand to their current systemic significance,” the fund said.
Download your FREE 7 Part Agent Short Sale Secrets crash course now. Instant Free Download Now.
Realtor coaching. Real estate training. Agent Short Sale Secrets. Agent REO Secrets. Tim and Julie Harris. Harris Real Estate University. How to get REOs. BPO. REI. Realtors. Real Estate Training.
Tags: agent reo secrets, BPO, harris real estate university, harris university real estate, how to get reos, real estate training + realtors, realtor coaching, realtors, tim and julie harris
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
It was good info. I enjoyed it.
Thank you and well done.