Past NAR Economist Tells ALL | Chief Economist Admits To ‘Spinning’ His Forecasts | Admits, “I Was Wrong”
Money Magazine just interviewed the former Chief Economist for the NAR, David Leach. In this interview he admits that he was ’spinning’ and that ‘he was wrong’. He shouldn’t feel too bad..most of the country (heck, world) was wrong about their housing predictions. Alan Greenspan is now admitting that he was wrong with his economic policy…so, Mr. Leach…you are in good company.
Afterall, no one should really be surprised. He was the NARs Chief Economist after all and they were signing his paychecks. Here is the interview:
Q. Were you wrong to be so bullish?
A. I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right in line with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it. It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren’t good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.
Q. The NAR’s latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?
A. My views are quite different now. I’m pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we’ll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we’ve still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It’ll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets.
Q. Any regrets?
A. I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.
Q. The NAR’s latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?
A. My views are quite different now. I’m pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we’ll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we’ve still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It’ll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets.
Q. Any regrets?
A. I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.
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What it comes down to is that you can’t trust anybody anymore. No trust in business, government or private relationships is expensive. What a shame!
Its easy to feel like that Margret….
start with making so people can trust you…that you go above and beyond.
If everyone does this…maybe, just maybe we can get our country back on track.
Tim