2010-2012 Real Estate Market Predictions | Short Sales and REOs to Dominate
What are YOUR 2010 Housing Market Predictions?…
Housing market rebound, Housing Crash Version 3.0…..more of the same?
Here are a smattering of ‘predictions’ (maybe expectations) from many well respected sources.
Mortgage originations probably will decline 16 percent next year as the homebuyer tax credit expires and the Federal Reserve winds down purchases of mortgage-backed bonds, according to a report by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.
Lending may drop to $1.6 trillion in 2010 from $1.9 trillion this year, Bose George and Jade Rahmani wrote in a research note today. The volume of refinancings will decline after the end of the Fed program in March boosts rates, and home purchases will “taper off” after the tax credit expires in April, according to the analysts for the New York-based firm.
“We do not expect the government to attempt to boost refinance activity further, primarily because there are limited options available to do so,” the analysts wrote.
The housing market was helped this year by an $8,000 first- time buyers tax credit that pushed resales to a 6.1 million annual pace in October, the highest since February 2007, the National Association of Realtors said in a Nov. 23 report. Home sales are likely to be “flat” in 2010, Keefe said.
Agents…you need to re-read that again….home sales will be ‘flat’ once all the government stimulation runs dry. Check out the term dates…the home buying tax credit expires April 2010. We know (and all of you should know) that the banks are going to move forward on literally millions of foreclosures. This will result in 2010…2011 and most likely 2012 having record REO sales. Its NOT too late for YOU to become a REO Listing Agent. Watch the FREE Agent REO Secrets video and download the FREE How-To List REO’s book. Earn your CREOD (Certified Real Estate Owned Designation)…start now for only $97!
President Barack Obama last month signed a bill extending the program into 2010. The new version keeps the first-time buyer benefit and makes a smaller credit available to some move- up buyers.
The Fed in January began purchasing $1.25 trillion of bonds backed by home loans in an effort to reduce fixed mortgage rates. The rate dropped to an all-time low of 4.71 percent during the week ended Dec. 4, according to McLean, Virginia- based Freddie Mac. It increased to 4.81 percent last week.
What else do we know. The FHA is raising lending standards. The Fed has made it clear that they will stop ‘investing’ in mortgage backed securities. This WILL result in overall tighter lending standards and….ultimately….a stable housing market.
Ok, more tidbits….
About $2.5 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are due to reset from July through August 2011, a substantial amount of it in places already reeling from the foreclosure crisis, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac. Foreclosure filings could approach 4 million nationwide next year with about half of them coming primarily in four states — Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona.
Predictions from Trulia…
Pete Flint, chief executive officer of San Francisco-based Trulia.com, said he’s still seeing a lot of inventory for sale with substantial price reductions. Asking prices have been reduced by about 16 percent in Las Vegas, which is surprising, he said.
“It suggests the market is still on the decline,” Flint said. “A lot of cuts are at the top of the market. It would not surprise me to see double-digit declines, unfortunately, in Las Vegas over the next 12 to 18 months. Until unemployment levels off and starts to get better, we expect foreclosures to continue to play a big role in the 2010 housing market.”
More from Rick Sharga…by the way…if you don’t know who Rick Sharga is…Google him. This guy has been stone cold accurate about housing.
Sharga said emerging foreclosure markets include Boise, Idaho; Provo, Utah; Portland, Ore.; Joliet, Ill.; and Fayetteville, Ark. “Follow the unemployment numbers and you’ll be able to track it,” he said..
On to what the Mortgage Bankers are predicting to come….
The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting some 7 million home loans in default, creating what some analysts have called a “shadow inventory” of foreclosures on the way.
A survey from RealtyTrac and Trulia.com focusing on buyers’ attitudes toward foreclosures showed investors, trade-up buyers and renters are most likely to purchase a distressed property.The online survey, conducted Nov. 5-9 by Harris Interactive, found a notable decrease in consumers’ willingness to buy foreclosed properties, with 43 percent of U.S. adults saying that they are at least somewhat likely to consider purchasing a foreclosed home in the future, compared with 55 percent surveyed in May.
How big of a role will Short Sales be in 2010? Lets look at our hometown of Las Vegas….
A lot of attention has been given to bank-owned properties in Las Vegas, but the real need is to get contingent short sales approved, said Robyn Yates, owner and broker of Windermere Realty.
About 75 percent of all contingent sales in Las Vegas are awaiting bank approval for a short sale, or a sale for less than the mortgage balance. Of the 11,021 contingent home sales, 8,229 are short sales and 1,909 are real estate-owned, or bank-owned.
…I read stats like that daily….I blog about what is happening with Short Sales…and how 2010 IS the year of the Short Sale.
We have literally tens of thousands of agents read this blog every month….and yet…..how many agents are successfully listing and CLOSING Short Sales?
What are you waiting for? In most markets Short Sales will dominate the sales activity. In 2010 Short Sales are going to be streamlined…watch the videos about the new 2010 Treasury Department Short Sale Guidelines.
In 2007 we were the first coaching and training company to introduce Short Sales to a national audience. (No, I am not saying we ‘created’ the short sale process). Since then we have had literally thousands of fellow agents take action and earn their HREU CDPD. Because we KNOW that Short Sales are going to be where the market is for 2010 we are making it easier for agents to earn their designation.
Do this, if you want to enroll in the HREU CDPD Agent Short Sale coaching program NOW call 866-422-9497. You can get started for only $97. You will be personally coached by 2 agents who are selling over 100 short sales this year…in other words, you will be given the best, cutting edge information.
Important Note: Listen I know there are companies that have popped up in the last 12 or so months that are trying to charge $500+ for their ‘designations’. And for that amount of money..you get 2 days of someone trying to upsell you into something that costs…$99 per month. Agents, do your homework before you invest your Time and your MONEY. If you are using Twitter…send @Kristalk a message…ask her what her experience was with one of these new upstart short sale designation mills.
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