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Breaking Real Estate News: New American Dream of Home Renter-Ship.
July 15, 2009 – 2:14 pm | No Comment
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Home Sales INcrease!

I knew this was coming….but, I was hoping not this soon….

The ‘New’ idea to ’save housing’…..you won’t believe this…

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. officials are weighing a plan to let borrowers who have fallen behind on mortgage payments avoid eviction by renting their home instead, sources familiar with the administration’s thinking said on Tuesday.

What am I missing….they can’t make (or won’t make) their house payment…but, somehow they will make a rental payment? Who will manage all of these hypothetical rentals?

Under one idea being discussed, delinquent homeowners would surrender ownership of their homes, but would continue to live in the property for several years, the sources told Reuters.

So, someone doesn’t make their house payment..and they actually believe they will make a rental payment….for UP TO 3 Years! How will this appear on their credit…will someone losing their home from not making their payment still have the same negative credit hit if they participate in this prgram?

Who sets the rental rates? (does anyone actually believe the rental rates would be market rent? No way, they would be set too low. Good times ahead for all of us who own rentals!

Can someone sub-rent the house out and keep the margin?

A U.S. Treasury spokeswoman said late on Tuesday that “we are constantly reviewing new ways to help struggling homeowners and stabilize the housing market. This is just one idea among many that has been considered, but no decisions are imminent on the matter.”

Heres a thought…..stop trying to artificially mess with the real estate markets for political reasons and let the market correct itself….

Officials have been frustrated as red tape and rising interest rates have slowed a housing rescue plan announced in February that was meant to refinance the mortgages of 5 million borrowers and lower monthly payments for 4 million more.

A housing crisis of record defaults began in 2006 at the end of a five-year housing boom of easy lending. But the current crisis is being driven as much by climbing unemployment.

Well, maybe. But, isn’t the real issue the fact that housing is….still overpriced? If you are in most housing markets renting is a BARGAIN vs owning.

Since one in five homeowners owe more than their property is worth, they have little cushion if they lose their job or face another crisis, said Jay Brinkmann, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

And getting worse….the simple fact is that what the folks in DC should be focused on is SHORTSALES and REOS. As in selling the homes through short sales (thus avoiding the foreclosures and REO) and forcing the banks to stop playing games and getting their REOs listed and sold!

“Foreclosure is a double trigger — does someone have a job and do they owe more than a home is worth?” Brinkmann asked.

On Monday, an administration official told Reuters that the Treasury Department is mulling new ways to save jobless homeowners from foreclosure as it continues to expand its mortgage aid.

Listen, I feel for all of those who have lost their jobs. Its horrible. But, what are the ramifications of making it so someone who has ‘lost their job’ no longer has to make their house payment. Sort-a sounds like a good deal to me!

The official told Reuters it was reasonable for policy-makers to consider terms for loan forbearance — letting borrowers delay, defer or skip payments — and that they should be in keeping with other aid for the unemployed.

Hey guys, lenders already do this. I am guessing that they don’t need you telling them. (deep sigh)

A PLAN WHOSE TIME HAS COME?

Two years ago, a liberal economist floated the idea that struggling homeowners could become long-term renters. Dean Baker, a researcher with the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington, says his idea still has merit and overcomes the key moral hazards of helping troubled homeowners.

“It is a very simple, clean way to help these people,” said Baker, who has discussed his idea with White House officials.

Under Baker’s plan, a bankruptcy judge would help determine a fair rent for the property. Banks would be able to sell the occupied homes, but the renter’s lease would remain in effect.

“Borrowers would lose their stake in the home so it is hard to say that they’ve gotten a windfall,” he said.

Come on….really? How about all of those homeowners who are CHOOSING to walk away from their homes because they are so upside down?

Officials are mulling several ideas on how to swap a homeowner’s loan for a rental lease without disrupting mortgage markets.

The government could pay mortgage service companies cash to take part in the program — or encourage lenders to sell the homes to a third party that would write rental agreements — under two scenarios under consideration.

Many non-profit agencies manage affordable properties and might be interested in partnering in such a rental program, said John Taylor, the president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.

OOOPS…catch that one? In other words, these fellas want the management contracts for all of those rentals. THAT would be a serious cash cow. Talk about a sweet business to be in! So that we are clear…a non-profit can still make millions (and millions) for its owners, managers etc.

“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner, the lender who has a troubled borrower and the non-profit,” he said.

“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner….”….don’t you mean renter?

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Foreclosure Crisis…Is The Worst Yet To Come?
February 6, 2009 – 4:13 pm | No Comment
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Realtors, there is a new book out that you need to be aware of…..Called Contagion.

Here is a review of the book…..

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Let’s say you own a $1 million home in Santa Barbara, California.

The house seemed like a steal when you bought it with that adjustable-rate mortgage in 2005. You still love the white beaches and those yachts bobbing up and down in the harbor.

Then you awaken early one morning, troubled that your monthly payments will soon double. You go out to pick up your newspaper and see for-sale signs on five houses on the street. One identical to yours just sold for $500,000.

Are you going to pay the bank $1 million plus interest for your place? John R. Talbott, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, poses that hypothetical question in his latest book of financial prophesy, “Contagion.”

His answer: “I don’t think so,” he says. “If I’m right, then this housing decline has only just begun.”

Talbott is an oracle with a track record: His previous books predicted the collapse of both the housing bubble and the tech-stock binge before it. A friend who runs a New York steak house introduces him as Johnny Nostradamus, he says.

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What sets him apart from other doomsayers is his relentless emphasis on simple arithmetic. He walks you through the numbers to show how U.S. house prices got so out of kilter with wages, rental prices and replacement values — the cost of buying a property and building a home. (“Homes in California by 2006 were selling at three to five times what it would cost to build a similar home from scratch,” he writes.)

Five More Years

Talbott’s latest predictions are sobering. The U.S. is only halfway through the total potential decline in housing prices, he says. Home values will continue to deteriorate for four to five years, he forecasts. Adjustable-rate mortgages issued in 2004 and 2005, for example, are only now resetting for the first time, he notes.

Bankers may “try to blame the crisis on poor Americans with bad credit histories, but that is not the real cause of the housing crisis,” he says. “The greatest home-price appreciations and the homes most subject to price readjustment are in America’s wealthiest cities and its glitziest neighborhoods.”

At the end of 2008, a record 19 million U.S. homes stood empty and homeownership sank to an eight-year low as banks seized homes faster than they could sell them, the U.S. Census Bureau said this week. Almost one in six owners with mortgages owed more than their homes were worth, Zillow.com said the same day.

By the time the crash ends, Talbott predicts, homeowners will have lost as much as $10 trillion, with investors and banks worldwide losing almost $2 trillion. And just as the U.S. starts getting over a prolonged recession, the first big wave of baby boomers will retire, depriving the economy of their productivity (and high consumption), he says.

Back to 1997

So how far will the price of your home on the range fall? Citing historical data and trends, Talbott concludes that real prices should return to their average 1997 levels, adjusted for inflation. Why 1997? A 120-year historical graph shows that real home prices in the U.S. stayed relatively flat for 100 years, then began rising in 1981 and surged from 1997 to 2006.

A return to 1997 prices “would get us out of the heady, crazy days from 1997 to 2006 in which banks were lending large amounts of money under poor supervision and aggressive terms.”

If this indeed happens that means that virtually ever home seller will be ‘upside down’ in their homes. That would lead to thousands of sellers needing to list their homes with agents who know how to work with short sales. REALTORS: Watch this video now to learn how to easily list and sell short sales.

How did we get into this mess? Talbott blames everyone from average Americans who caught “the greed bug” to hedge funds and credit-default swaps. The single biggest error, he says, was for U.S. citizens to allow their national politicians to take large campaign contributions from big business and Wall Street — a theme Kevin Phillips developed in “Bad Money.”

‘No Accident’

“This crisis was no accident,” he says. It began, in Talbot’s view, because the U.S. government was “co-opted” into deregulating the financial industry. Politicians were “paid to deregulate industry,” taking billions of dollars each year in campaign contributions.

His investment advice for this prolonged recession: Hang on to cash and invest in gold or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. If he had to invest in stocks, he would put his money in China.

Living in smaller houses with their savings gutted, U.S. baby boomers will face yet another big challenge, Talbott says:

“The toughest job to get in the future will be the elderly person greeting you as you enter the local Wal-Mart.”

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Las Vegas Realtor Coaching Student Success | New Agent Coaching and Training | Real Estate Training
December 19, 2008 – 11:20 am | No Comment
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Hello Tim and Julie,
I am new to your program and new to the real estate business.  Last Saturday I had my first open house and I was able to help a very wonderful couple who couldn’t decide if they wanted to continue renting or buy to come to the decision to start looking for their first home with me next week.
Being a rookie, your Free Superstar Interviews, classes, and great articles on the blog have given me the market knowledge, skills and confidence to help buyers make their dream of homeownership possible.  I heard on one of your recent conference calls where Julie and you have been emphasizing on closing for an appointment and I did just that.  That gives me the confidence that I can do this business even though I have no sales experience at all and I don’t have to be overly aggressive about it.  You help me to have a different perspective of my role as a Realtor.
Now I put serving and and helping people above making money.  And when I genuinely do that, all the other parts of the business seem to fall into place a lot easier.   I still have a lot to learn about short sale and REO, and I am looking forward to putting to work the new skills that I will acquire through your program in this challenging, yet exciting market.
Thanks very much.
Jennifer Yen
Coldwell Banker Premier Realty
702-672-6313

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Realtor Coaching | Protect Your Money | Where To Put Your Money Now
October 15, 2008 – 12:24 pm | One Comment
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Coach Chris sent me this post from Mark Cubans blog www.blogmaverick.com. Mark is a Billionaire so chances are he is worth listening to…

Here is the post:

Mark Cuban

This is for anyone who has under 250k dollars in stocks and bonds and also has debt.

If you listen to me, I GUARANTEE YOU that you will earn a greater return than 90pct of the richest, supposedly smartest money managers ON THE PLANET. All those Wall Street fat cats, they can’t earn as much on their money for you as I can help you earn.

Sound too good to be true ? Read this and decide for yourself.

First thing to understand is that Wall Street wants you to believe that if you give them money, every month, forever, to buy stocks, that you will most likely will earn 7 or 8pct per year. When compounded, your money will double every 9 or 10 years. Sounds great, right ? One problem with it. You know what you would call someone on Wall Street who made you 7 or 8 pct a year, every year without ever losing money in a year ? Non Existent. Those managers don’t exist.

You can however do what they can’t and even better if you do the following:

1. Write down a list of every penny you owe to anyone and the interest rate that you pay on that amount. Your mortgage, your car payment, your student loan, the Rent A Center TV and Dell Computer Loan, your loan shark, your uncle or grandparents and most of all your credit cards

2. I’m willing to bet that you have absolutely no idea what your true, effective interest rate is on any of the above. Between penalties for using the wrong type of stamp, being 37 seconds late, and moving interest rates that are triggered by every crazy thing, its hard for anyone to know. However, a glance at Citibank Platinum Select Mastercard details as an example, would tell you that if you are late on your payment, your rate is:

“All default APRs equal the greater of (1) the Prime Rate plus up to 23.99% or (2) up to 28.99%. PLUS LATE FEES of 10pct OR MORE ON BALANCES UNDER $250 !!!! (There may be something in the fine print that asks you to bend over too, but my eyes couldnt focus on print that was that small….) “

All of Wall Street would give you the choice of either testicle to be making returns that high. A quick glance at IndexCreditCards.com tell us that not only are the average rates for any card, higher than the biggest promises from the best Wall Streeters, but they have been trending higher.

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So in a nutshell, while the interest rate on your credit cards is going up, the return on your investments has been going down. You know what they call someone who keeps on giving money to their stockbroker, mutual fund or 401k, but doesn’t pay off their credit card balance in full every month, BROKE AND STUPID !

The first thing you do with your money is if you have money market funds, you take the money out and pay down your credit card debt. If that doesn’t pay it off. This is what you do next:

You make a list of every stock, bond, fund, whatever you own, and mark what your cost is, the current market price, the current dividend yield on your cost basis, if any and whether it is in a 401k, fund or brokerage account. For any stock or bond at a brokerage account that is yielding less than what you are paying in interest rates on your credit cards, and for which the current price is less than what you paid for it. YOU SELL IT. When you call your broker to get the prices, you do not let them give you a bunch of BS about why you shouldn’t. YOU SELL IT.

You dont hold it to see if you can make money with it. If you love it, you immediately fall out of love with it. ITS A FRICKING STOCK, not a family member, and you sell it. You take that money and you pay down your credit card debt.

Then you start with the stocks/bonds you have made money on. Beginning with the stock/bonds you have made the least amount of money on, if it isn’t yielding you more than the interest rate plus late fees that you pay, you start selling, and selling and selling. Sell as much as you need to until you can pay off your credit card balance.

Once you have sold enough to pay off your credit card balance, you RIP UP YOUR CREDIT CARDS and replace it with a debit card. The only way Credit Cards cost you less than 9pct, or possibly as much as 40pct or more is if you pay it off monthly. Debit cards make that happen automatically. You cant afford to pay 9pct, 40pct or more. Both are far more than you can expect to make in the stock market, or any market. If you have gotten here to this point, and you just tore up your credit cards, YOU HAVE JUST EARNED A GREATER RETURN ON YOUR MONEY IN THAT PERIOD OF TIME THAN ANYONE ON WALL STREET COULD EVER EARN YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT.

If you still arent to the point of paying off your credit card, its time to borrow against your 401k. Switch all your money from whatever funds to insured, guaranteed funds like money markets. Then find out the rate of interest you pay, how long you have to pay it off (usually 5 years), and then borrow the money to pay off your credit cards. I have never seen a 401k that charges more than credit cards in interest. Credit cards accrue interest and penalites a lot faster than you can earn and accrue interest and returns in your 401k. So borrow the money, pay off the credit card, and start paying back your 401k with what your credit card payments were. You will have your 401k loan paid off a lot faster than you could ever pay off your credit cards.

Once your credit card is paid off, then you go to your debt list and pick out the next highest interest rate and start the process all over again until all your debt except your mortgage is paid off.

If after paying off all your non mortgage debt, you still have money left, then you need to sit down with someone who knows your tax situation. Since mortgage loans are usually deductible, ask them to help you figure out what your effective interest rate is on your mortgage and what your outsanding balance is. If you are fortunate and your net effective rate is less than 7 or even 8pct, and you can make the monthly payments, then you probably don’t need to do anything with your mortgage.

If you have a mortgage that is variable in any way , shape or form, you are probably paying more after tax in effective interest rate than you can earn on your money anywhere that is legal. With this information in hand, you and your accountant or whoever you turn to for help (and please make it someone who really knows what their doing, not someone who got a refund using some tax software) can set up a meeting with your banker, or whoever happens to own your mortgage if you can find that person, and start discussions on how to buy down, pay down , buy out, or pay off your mortgage. They may say no, but if you can get them to renegotiate, and these days thats a very real possibility, you should be able to get a greater return from this process than you can get from the money being in stocks, bonds, or any thing else for that matter. This is particularly applicable if you have a subprime , ARM, or any type of variable rate mortgage.

If you have read this far you have hopefully picked up on the basic principle of debt vs investments. The people who lend you money can guarantee you that they are going to charge you a ridiculous percentage, and throw on top of it, any and every fee they can, thereby increasing the effective interest rate you pay. They can do it every year forever.

On the other side, no one in the universe can guarantee you that they can earn you more than what Consumer lenders like credit card companies charge you in interest. No one. If they could, the lenders wouldnt lend the money to you, they would give the money to those people to invest, right ?

If it takes selling every stock, bond and whatever you have to pay off your debts, do it. If it means borrowing against your 401k and paying back yourself instead of the credit card or finance company, do it. It is a far better return than you will ever make putting that money elsewhere.

If none of this applied to you. You kept your debt at levels that you could afford and at rates that were fixed and low, congrats. Hopefully this just reinforced what you already knew.

If on the other hand, this set you on the right path, and you still have money in stocks and bonds, you are fortunate. You probably need to make sure that what you own is very, very safe and not at risk. My recommendation is 6 month CDs, you can probably go to your bank and convince them to pay you 4 or more percent. If you havent heard, there is a bank liquidity crisis. Banks want your money. They have been ripping you off with credit cards all these years, go take some of their money…

One last point. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities to see a collapse of credit card debt like we saw in mortgage debt. Default rates are going to go up. That means credit card company income is going to go down. You know what banks do when their income goes down ? They try to figure out more ways to charge you more money to make it up. Which of course pushs up default rates. Its a viscious circle and you pay the price.

Get out now while you can.

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COME ON, REALTORS! (Special Guest Post)
January 7, 2008 – 10:48 am | No Comment
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I’m a mortgage lender.  One of the spokes in my wheel is to spend a few hours a week visiting Real Estate offices to get in front of new people.  I meet people on a regular basis, and I can see who’s working and who’s not.

Last Friday, I did my tour.  I hit 17 Real Estate Offices in the north Columbus suburbs.   Only one of them, an independent brokerage, had more than 5 people working.  I heard the sound of ringing phones in everyone’s empty office, and only the receptionist was there.

Not a good way to rev up for the new year and the new market, is it?   Yet, on the other hand, between Thursday and Friday, I got a half dozen calls from people that were looking for options–having trouble making their mortgage payments.  These are prime prospects that probably ALSO called a Realtor to see if they could sell there house…only finding someone that is actually working might be impossible!

That means a HUGE opportunity for the agents that are working, findable, and available.  In the 2 minutes I was at a local Coldwell banker office, the receptionists took 2 sign calls with nobody to transfer them to because none of the 70 agents pictured on the wall was there.  ANY agent that was present and ready to work had the chance to help someone.  The standard isn’t that hard

Right now–in January–clients are looking to figure out their housing situation and to get rid of the uncertainty.  If only 2% of the people are working, be part of that 2%.  Be available to people that need to get some work done!   There is an ENORMOUS opportunity to win the game right now.   I couldn’t help ANY of the 6 people that called me because they were behind, or their values were off.  I betcha there are TONS of people RIGHT NOW looking to get out of their homes, and it’s time for great agent to help out!

Chris Johnson runs the Ten Day Team at First Ohio Home Finance. He closes 100% of his conventional loans in Ten Calendar Days.  Interested in having a client closed in ten days?  email: chris@tendayteam.com

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