Realtor Coaching & Training: Real
Robert J. Shiller
HREU Students and future students…listen to this guy… Dr. Robert Shiller was among the very few to warn of a housing bust before it happened. Shiller is the co-creator of the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
Dr. Shiller believes that housing could indeed be approaching a bottom. But, don’t pop the champagne corks just yet…
He predicts that prices might remain ‘at the bottom’ for years to come as the United States remains in a liquidity trap very similar to what caused the Great Depression.
During a recent interview, Newsmax.TV’s Dan Mangru asked Shiller where he sees the housing market going from here.
“In the United States, home prices have been dropping at a rapid clip,” Shiller responded.
“However, in the latest S&P/Case-Shiller data, the rate of decline seems to be reduced, and in fact, in seven of our 20 cities, home prices were rising in April. So it does seem to me that we are getting closer to a bottom at the very least.”
Last week, demand for home-purchase loans decreased and the unemployment rate now stands at 9.5 percent, Mangru pointed out, and asked: Are home buyers just scared?
“I think having really high unemployment is naturally scaring people,” Shiller said.
“And we don’t know that it’s over yet. We had a really bad unemployment report, and unemployment could easily exceed 10 percent. People know that. That’s one reason the personal savings rate has risen to 6.9 percent, levels we haven’t seen in decades.
“Even though the confidence surveys seem to be relatively upbeat, I don’t know if it really translates into willingness to purchase yet.”
Even though this is a housing lead recession..housing WON’T lead up out as some have hoped for.
He told Newsmax.TV he doesn’t think some proposals calling for increased tax credits for all home buyers is a good idea.
He sees the $8,000 tax credit for new home buyers as stimulative because it forces new home buyers into the market rather than existing homeowners who would put their existing properties up for sale.
In discussing the overall economy, Shiller said the United States had avoided an economic catastrophe because of intervention by the Federal Reserve and Treasury, but the nation remains in a bad recession.
Instead, Shiller foresees a risk of a weak economy for years to come.
Popularity: 2% [?]
I knew this was coming….but, I was hoping not this soon….
The ‘New’ idea to ’save housing’…..you won’t believe this…
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. officials are weighing a plan to let borrowers who have fallen behind on mortgage payments avoid eviction by renting their home instead, sources familiar with the administration’s thinking said on Tuesday.
What am I missing….they can’t make (or won’t make) their house payment…but, somehow they will make a rental payment? Who will manage all of these hypothetical rentals?
Under one idea being discussed, delinquent homeowners would surrender ownership of their homes, but would continue to live in the property for several years, the sources told Reuters.
So, someone doesn’t make their house payment..and they actually believe they will make a rental payment….for UP TO 3 Years! How will this appear on their credit…will someone losing their home from not making their payment still have the same negative credit hit if they participate in this prgram?
Who sets the rental rates? (does anyone actually believe the rental rates would be market rent? No way, they would be set too low. Good times ahead for all of us who own rentals!
Can someone sub-rent the house out and keep the margin?
A U.S. Treasury spokeswoman said late on Tuesday that “we are constantly reviewing new ways to help struggling homeowners and stabilize the housing market. This is just one idea among many that has been considered, but no decisions are imminent on the matter.”
Heres a thought…..stop trying to artificially mess with the real estate markets for political reasons and let the market correct itself….
Officials have been frustrated as red tape and rising interest rates have slowed a housing rescue plan announced in February that was meant to refinance the mortgages of 5 million borrowers and lower monthly payments for 4 million more.
A housing crisis of record defaults began in 2006 at the end of a five-year housing boom of easy lending. But the current crisis is being driven as much by climbing unemployment.
Well, maybe. But, isn’t the real issue the fact that housing is….still overpriced? If you are in most housing markets renting is a BARGAIN vs owning.
Since one in five homeowners owe more than their property is worth, they have little cushion if they lose their job or face another crisis, said Jay Brinkmann, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
And getting worse….the simple fact is that what the folks in DC should be focused on is SHORTSALES and REOS. As in selling the homes through short sales (thus avoiding the foreclosures and REO) and forcing the banks to stop playing games and getting their REOs listed and sold!
“Foreclosure is a double trigger — does someone have a job and do they owe more than a home is worth?” Brinkmann asked.
On Monday, an administration official told Reuters that the Treasury Department is mulling new ways to save jobless homeowners from foreclosure as it continues to expand its mortgage aid.
Listen, I feel for all of those who have lost their jobs. Its horrible. But, what are the ramifications of making it so someone who has ‘lost their job’ no longer has to make their house payment. Sort-a sounds like a good deal to me!
The official told Reuters it was reasonable for policy-makers to consider terms for loan forbearance — letting borrowers delay, defer or skip payments — and that they should be in keeping with other aid for the unemployed.
Hey guys, lenders already do this. I am guessing that they don’t need you telling them. (deep sigh)
A PLAN WHOSE TIME HAS COME?
Two years ago, a liberal economist floated the idea that struggling homeowners could become long-term renters. Dean Baker, a researcher with the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington, says his idea still has merit and overcomes the key moral hazards of helping troubled homeowners.
“It is a very simple, clean way to help these people,” said Baker, who has discussed his idea with White House officials.
Under Baker’s plan, a bankruptcy judge would help determine a fair rent for the property. Banks would be able to sell the occupied homes, but the renter’s lease would remain in effect.
“Borrowers would lose their stake in the home so it is hard to say that they’ve gotten a windfall,” he said.
Come on….really? How about all of those homeowners who are CHOOSING to walk away from their homes because they are so upside down?
Officials are mulling several ideas on how to swap a homeowner’s loan for a rental lease without disrupting mortgage markets.
The government could pay mortgage service companies cash to take part in the program — or encourage lenders to sell the homes to a third party that would write rental agreements — under two scenarios under consideration.
Many non-profit agencies manage affordable properties and might be interested in partnering in such a rental program, said John Taylor, the president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.
OOOPS…catch that one? In other words, these fellas want the management contracts for all of those rentals. THAT would be a serious cash cow. Talk about a sweet business to be in! So that we are clear…a non-profit can still make millions (and millions) for its owners, managers etc.
“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner, the lender who has a troubled borrower and the non-profit,” he said.
“It could be a ‘win-win’ for the homeowner….”….don’t you mean renter?
Popularity: 1% [?]
Facebook For Realtors
How-To Use Facebook For Realtors….what NOT to do!
Facebook has become a crucial aspect of any agents online marketing plan. Facebook is proving to be a powerful, effective (and mostly FREE) way to get the word out about your real estate business.
Its important that you know the public (and secret) rules for using Facebook.
Its crucial that you understand that you DON’T own your content that you post to FB. They do. You could spend hours and hours posting, updating content to your FB account just to have your account ’suspended’ for breaking one of these ‘rules’.
1) Don’t add too many friends. FB will send you a warning if you are seen as adding too many friends…but, once you get that warning it may be too late. There is no published ‘official’ info on how many friends you can add per day…so, be careful. You can have only 5000 friends max.
2) Not completing your profile. You wont have your account shut down for an incomplete profile but, if will make you look unprofessional. Remember, your real estate clients ARE searching for you on Facebook. Make it so when they land on your FB page your presentation is professional.
3) Spamming your friends. This includes: posting to too many groups, posting to too many users walls. YES, FB is a social network and yes your goal is to engage with others. But, if you do this too much…kiss your FB account bye-bye. By the way, no warning is granted for this one…your account will simply go ‘poof’.
4) Joining too many groups. Sort of like the prior point.
5) Not using your real name. Facebook wants you to use your real name…for example: http://www.Facebook.com/TimandJulieHarris
6) Tell the truth. This one should be of no surprise..Don’t lie in your profile. For example, don’t lie about your education level, schools attended etc. FB may find out and you can say bye-bye to your account.
7) Don’t poke too many people. Once you are on FB you will know what that means. (I know for the unititiated this point may sound a tad obscene)
8)4:1. Remember that ratio. You will be given the opportunity to ‘update your status’ on FB as often as you would like. The ‘golden ratio for updates’ is 4:1. 4 personal-ish updates for every 1 commercial-ish update. In other words, DO update your profile with personal stuff. You can decide how personal you want to be. Warning: BE PROFESSIONAL. Every 4th post you can talk about a listing etc.
9) NEVER bash anyone online. Aside from the recently passed NAR guidelines for social networking, which should be enough of a reason not to snipe others…its just rude and will make you look bad. Remember, despite what you may believe you are NOT anonymous on line. You can be sued for libel.
10) Don’t log-in to FB too often or over stay your welcome. Facebook has been known to shut accounts down if the user is spending too much time on their site. The average FB user spends 20 minutes per day on FB. So, if you are spending significantly more time on their site…they may give you the virtual boot. Why? Because you are using their bandwidth, their servers..and costing them money.
11) ENGAGE. A great idea (I just learned this one) is to post questions for your status updates. Ask questions that will lead to potential clients engaging with you….for example: ” Need to buy my daughter a 16th B-Day gift…any ideas?”, or “Looking for a new book to read…any suggestions…open to any topics?”. You can also ask more ‘commercial’ type questions…”just listed an amazing 4 family with cash flow postitive #s…less than $200k!…interested?”
12) Placing ads in Marketplace vs the paid Social Ads. Hey, guess what…FB wants to make money…big surprise, right?! Facebook will go after Realtors who place property listing ads in their MarketingPlace section (free) vs their new Social Ads (paid). We have been experimenting with Social Ads with good results.
13) The Golden Social Networking Rule. You know the Golden Rule…’Treat others like you would like to be treated”. Well the ‘Golden Facebook Rule’ is to engage (speak with) your FB friends the way they want to be communicated with. In other words, if someone posts a comment on your FB Wall…comment back. If someone invites you to join their Fan/ Business Page…JOIN!.
14) Start a Fan/ Business FB page. This is IN ADDITION to your primary Friends Page. Consider taking FB up on their offer to start your own Fan/ Business Page. The benefits of doing this are many…unlimited ‘Friends’, you are given way more levity for commercial marketing etc. Oh, and its FREE.
15) What Starts On-line must be taken off line. Last one…you must take your online connecting…offline. So, you have 300 FB friends. You have been following these rules and have earned their trust due to your diligent and thoughtful contributions, status updates etc. You then read how one of your FB Friends is talking about real estate. Maybe their status update is?: ” Neighbor just listed their home…wonder how much they are asking“…you need to engage with that person. Its not enough to just comment on their status update…you need to…..pick up the phone and call them. You might say something like this…” Hi, this is Tim Harris….I am one of your firends on FB (if they dont already know)….I noticed that you were asking about the list price of your neighbors home…I can look that up for you right now….while I do that….would you like for me to do a free CMA on your home….(Yes)…Ok, great…by the way…how soon would you like to put your home on the market?” The point is….call them…..and engage!
Listen, I know that for many of you all of this social networking stuff sounds as appealing as fingernails on a chalk board. Please don’t be intimidated by what you don’t yet understand. I promised you this stuff is WAAAAY easier…and in many cases actually a lot of fun to use. Here is a great FREE video on how you can get started using social networks. Go here now to watch the Free Agent Tech Secrets video.
Popularity: 9% [?]
I’m a mortgage lender. One of the spokes in my wheel is to spend a few hours a week visiting Real Estate offices to get in front of new people. I meet people on a regular basis, and I can see who’s working and who’s not.
Last Friday, I did my tour. I hit 17 Real Estate Offices in the north Columbus suburbs. Only one of them, an independent brokerage, had more than 5 people working. I heard the sound of ringing phones in everyone’s empty office, and only the receptionist was there.
Not a good way to rev up for the new year and the new market, is it? Yet, on the other hand, between Thursday and Friday, I got a half dozen calls from people that were looking for options–having trouble making their mortgage payments. These are prime prospects that probably ALSO called a Realtor to see if they could sell there house…only finding someone that is actually working might be impossible!
That means a HUGE opportunity for the agents that are working, findable, and available. In the 2 minutes I was at a local Coldwell banker office, the receptionists took 2 sign calls with nobody to transfer them to because none of the 70 agents pictured on the wall was there. ANY agent that was present and ready to work had the chance to help someone. The standard isn’t that hard
Right now–in January–clients are looking to figure out their housing situation and to get rid of the uncertainty. If only 2% of the people are working, be part of that 2%. Be available to people that need to get some work done! There is an ENORMOUS opportunity to win the game right now. I couldn’t help ANY of the 6 people that called me because they were behind, or their values were off. I betcha there are TONS of people RIGHT NOW looking to get out of their homes, and it’s time for great agent to help out!
Chris Johnson runs the Ten Day Team at First Ohio Home Finance. He closes 100% of his conventional loans in Ten Calendar Days. Interested in having a client closed in ten days? email: chris@tendayteam.com
Popularity: 1% [?]
