We’ve all been speculating about the possible impact of the new tax law on in- and out-bound migration.  Now, we have some data.

Redfin, the tech-centric real estate business based in Seattle, just released its latest data on migration patterns from high-tax cities to mid-tier Metros.

Here’s what Nela Richardson, Redfin’s Chief Economist, had to say.  “People leaving coastal hubs in search of affordability has been a consistent trend for the last five years.  Late last year, there was a twist.  Many of the popular migration paths that we saw here at Redin.com (https://www.redfin.com/city/16163/WA/Seattle)  (told us) that users explored (in their home and city searches) were possible tax benefits along with increased affordability.”

People who were living in high-tax cities such as San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles are moving to Nashville, Phoenix, Sacramento and Las Vegas.  Of the one million Redfin users surveyed:

  • 15,489 left San Francisco
  • 12,532 left New York
  • 11,326 left Los Angeles
  • 3,892 left Washington DC
  • 1,772 left Chicago
  • 258 left Seattle (Richardson sees a beginning trend here)

Many San Franciscans moved to Sacramento and Seattle.  Many New Yorkers moved to Boston.  And many Washingtonians move to Philadelphia.

Las Vegas has always been a p9ssible option of Angelinos but now, it has become even more popular.  A “typical” home in Los Angeles that is similar to a home in Las Vegas costs $330,000 less in Las Vegas.  And, a family living in Los Angeles with an income of $150,000 would save $7,785 in taxes if that family moved to Las Vegas. 

A family living in New York with that same income would save $5,800 in taxes and $161,000 in home costs if that family moved to Atlanta.

Heidi Ludwig, a Hermosa Beach Redfin agent, says that lower taxes and more affordability have “…historically drawn Californians away from the coast to places like Nevada and Arizona.  The recent changes in tax laws have been coming up in many conversations with prospective home sellers more and more…I expect to see m ore people move in these same directions this year.”

It is hard to argue with lower taxes and overall affordability.  Now Redfin has given us the data to prove that argument.

Updated December 10, 2018 to include the Redfin website for more information.