Start: don’t believe the hype that its all hype. The health effects aside, this virus will be a massive disrupter to every aspect of your life. We have never seen anything like this before…,maybe after 9/11 or the depression that started in 07.
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Where are we now?
Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.
In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.
Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.”
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community-level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region.
In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.
The bottom line, this pandemic will last for at least the rest of this year. This is not going to suddenly go away. Even after the new cases of corona start to decline the financial fallout will be unpredictable and devastating.
What happens next:
1) expect massive government reaction and overreaction.
– Thermal scanners everywhere.
– State quarantines.
– Travel bans within the US (travel bans in place INTO the us)
– Govt offices, schools, closed.
– Major universities are closed, all going virtual.
2) expect massive government intervention into the financial markets. This IS an election year and there is NO WAY the govt won’t step in and provide historic levels of intervention.
– No payroll tax rest of the year, keeping cash with employers so they don’t have to fire.
– Lower rates to zero.
– All kinds of stimulus like mortgage standards being lowered and/ or downpayment assistance.
– Government to backstop credit lines for banks so that banks don’t cancel credit lines (they did this in 07)
– Possibly sending money directly to every American.
– Creative things like waving house payments etc. for loans backed by the govt.
3) expect fear from the uncertainty caused by the virus itself and the financial instability to lead to erratic behavior. You MUST not allow yourself to be ruled by fear.
– You must anticipate that your clients will be under more stress than they are prepared for and won’t think or act normally. Prepare yourself (mask on first) and then your clients…be the calm in the storm.
– When under stress people go to their caves. Mentally, emotionally and physically.
4) expect business interruption.
(NBA and many others have canceled events or banned attendance)
– Malls closed.
– Gatherings of certain sizes canceled.
– Earnings for the second half of the year could be scary because of the slow down now.
5) Expect businesses to become creative : Example, Target.
6) Global recession.
– It is not possible that all of this global and financial morass won’t lead to a global recession. How will this effect the US economy? too soon to know.
– 07-09 proved that when people are in fear mode they will do unpredictable things….like stop paying their mortgages if they are not optimistic about their homes current or future value.
7) Expect once in a lifetime opportunities. Know that the greatest fortunes have always been made during the greatest times of change. We are in one of those times now.
– Great companies like eXp came out of the last recession/ depression. Tough times force people to think out of the box. (31996 exp)
– Brokerages and other low margin brick and mortar businesses will use this as their graceful exit from their obsolete business models.
– Securities are on sale. Vanguard Index Funds, research 3 fund portfolio.
– Gold will spike.
– In markets like this the innovators and those who are not burdened by old ways of thinking dominate. Now is the time to drill down and work harder than ever…learn skills that this market requires. Assume your skillset from the seller’s market is obsolete.
– New leaders arise.
8) expect core level, root-level behavioral changes.
– Like after 9/11, after previous pandemics things never go back to what was normal.
– Virtual will become something that is seen as normal. Not the exception.
– Businesses will adapt to the omnipresent fear that will become normalized.
– people may accept the loss of liberties with the idea we will be ‘safer’.
– people will be less likely to travel and spend money. This may last 1-3 years like after 07-
9) Then frugality fatigue sets in.