Key Highlights

  • Second wave of layoffs hitting professional and white collar workers, according to Wall Street Journal
  • Jobless claims increased 5.2M this week pushing the tally to +22M
  • Remote workers of all specialties being cut by companies that now have no sales
  • Law firms cutting hours and eliminating positions as legal actions at standstill
  • City and state government jobs being furloughed due to city and state budget shortfalls
  • Non-COVIC-19 health workers now out of work

The consensus of 57 economists interviewed in April by The Wall Street Journal about unemployment projections over the coming months is that approximately 14.4M jobs will be lost on top of the already +22M already reported and that the US unemployment rate will rise to 13% by June 2020.

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A more extreme projection of job loss comes from Oxford Economics. a UK-based forecasting and consulting company. Gregory Daco, the chief economist with Oxford Economics, projects that 27.9M jobs will be lost in April. Not only will job losses in April be huge (on top of the already 17M who filed for unemployment in just three weeks in March), job losses will be indiscriminate across all sectors and professional/non-professional designations.

Business services workers such as attorneys, architects, consultants, advertising professionals, IT workers, media/telecommunications professionals and nonessential (non-COVID-19 treating) health care professionals will join hospitality and food services workers, retail/wholesale trade workers and workers in transportation, warehousing, construction and manufacturing workers are queuing up in present-day “bread lines” for food relief.

Those whose jobs haven’t yet been lost, eliminated or furloughed are or will soon see their hours cut in the coming months. Many economists expect the jobless rate to reach 20% this month.

One economist pointed out that any company that had planned to open a second location is not and any company that had planned to go public this year is not.

Predictions about when the labor market will bounce back are all over the lot. Adam Kamins, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, thinks half the jobs lost this spring will be regained by the end of the summer. Amy Crews Cutts with AC Cutts & Associates LLC is predicting that the labor market will take 5-6 years to fully bounce back from the sheer scale of job losses so far.

The consensus, however, among economists surveyed by The Journal is that it will take approximately 27 months for employment to return to February 2020 levels.

 

Thanks to Tyler Durden writing for zerohedge and BloombergNews.

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