Key Highlights
- CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) designed to offer early indication of home price trends
- Monthly report points to price indices, price forecast and market condition indicators
March 2021 National Home Prices
Nationwide, home prices, including distressed sales, jumped +11.3% y/y in March 2021 and +2% m/m in March 2021.
(All statistical data in this piece provided by CoreLogic.)
National Forecast on Home Prices
The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) forecast projects a monthly home price increase of +1.1% from March to April 2021 and an increase of +3.5% y/y from March 2021 to March 2022.
The 2021 spring home buying season appears to be on track to outpace trends seen in 2019 and 2018.
Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic,said, “Despite the severe slowdown last year, the 2021 spring home buying season is trending strong – reflecting the many positive signs of economic recovery. With prospective buyers continuing to be motivated by historically low mortgage rates, we anticipate sustained demand in the summer and early fall.”
Both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index post positive though moderating y/y changes and gains into 2022.
Millennials Leading Demand to Buy
Millennials have made up 54% of home purchase mortgage application over this last year. Likely, this trend will continue.
Older Millennials are seeking move-up purchases and younger Millennials are just entering their peak home buying years, 31 – 32 years old. Both older and younger Millennials are likely to be challenged by continued and increasingly eroding affordability issues compounded by severely limited supply and increasingly competitive bidding wars.
Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist with CoreLogic, said, “Lower-priced homes are in big demand and short supply, driving up prices faster compared to their more expensive counterparts. First-time buyers seeking a starter home priced 25% or more below the local-area median saw prices jump +15.1% during the past year, compared with the overall 11.3% gain in our national index.”
States and Metros with Highest Price Increases Y/Y
Some states experienced higher price increases than the national average home price increase of 11.3% y/y.
The top 10 states with the highest year-over-year price increases included:
– Idaho +25.0% y/y
– Montana +18.8%
– Arizona +18.0%
– Utah +16.8%
– Indiana +16.7%
– New Hampshire +16.4%
– Rhode Island +15.8%
– Connecticut +15.2%
– Vermont +14.3%
– Oregon +14.0%
The top 10 metros with the highest year-over-year price increases included:
– Phoenix +18.3%
– San Diego +14.0%
– Denver +12.0%
– Washington DC +10.0%
– Las Vegas +9.4%
– Los Angeles +8.8%
– Miami +7.4%
– Boston +7.3%
– Houston +6.7%
– Chicago +5.4
CoreLogic cautions that markets facing the most risk of price decline include Brownsville-Harlingen TX, Beaumont-Port Arthur TX, New Haven-Milford CT, Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS and Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia MI.
Thanks to CoreLogic.
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