National home prices increased +3.5% in October 2019, according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index (HPI) Report. CoreLogic also predicted in this report that home prices will increase +5.4% y/y from October 2019 through October 2020 and that home prices will increase +0.2% m/m from October 2019 through November 2020.
CoreLogic’s HPI report indicated that the rate of home price appreciation appears to be leveling off since price increases y/y have remained within the range of +3.2%-+3.5% for the past six months.
According to Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist, “While we saw prices increase+3.5% nationally last year, home prices also declined in 22 metropolitan areas. Price softness occurred in some high-cost urban areas and in metros with weak employment growth during this past year.”
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Historically, CoreLogic’s HPI has gained every consecutive month for over seven years and has gained an eye-popping +62.5% since the market bottomed out in March 2011. As of October 2019, the overall market is +9.4% higher than the pre-crisis peak in April 2006. Prices when adjusted for inflation were +2.5% y/y in October 2019 and -11.4% lower than pre-peak prices.
The lowest price tier gained the most in October 2019 with price appreciation coming in at +5.5%. The low-mid price tier came in at +4.7%; the mid-moderate price tier came in with an increase of +4.0%; and the high price tier came in at +3.1%.
Cumulatively, price appreciation since 2011 within each market tier looked like this in October 2019:
- Lowest price tier – +96.1%
- Low-mid price tier – +76.7%
- Mid-moderate price tier – +64.9%
- High price tier – +48.4%
“Interestingly,” said CoreLogic’s president and CEO, Frank Martell, “This persistent increase in home prices isn’t deterring older Millennials. In fact, 25% of those surveyed anticipate purchasing a home over the next six to eight months.”
States with the highest home price growth y/y in October 2019 included…
- Idaho – +10.9%
- Maine – +7.5%
- Indiana – +7.1%
- Vermont – +6.8%
- South Dakota – +6.4%
Denver led all cities in home price appreciation during October 2019 with an increase of +3.4% y/y.
States with the lowest home price growth y/y in October 2019 included…
- Connecticut – unchanged from October 2018 BUT -16.5% below its July 2006 peak
- New Jersey – -2%
- Washington DC – -1.9%
- Illinois – 01.8%
- New York – -1%
CoreLogic HPI Report indicated that 38 states showed home price appreciation slowing in October 2019. The state of Nevada led the pack in this race showing an increase in home prices of +3.2% in October 2019, a far cry from its +11.9% annual home price increase in October 2018.
Thanks to CoreLogic’s Molly Boesel for source data.