Key Highlight
- Because the economy halted in record speed, traditional economic data outdated before it’s even published
- Bloomberg economists created weekly dashboard of high frequency, alternative and market-based indicators to fill the economic information gap
- Now, dashboard shows depths of downturn
- In coming weeks, dashboard should show strength of recovery
In a blink of an eye, the US economy went from “chugging along at 2-3% growth” in mid-March to a standstill and rendered all traditional economic data past tense before it was even published. Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Tom Orlik have created a Recovery Tracker dashboard to fill the informational holes.
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Here’s a first look at this Recovery Tracker dashboard and its indicators.
Right now, several of the dashboard’s data points indicate a deepening contraction of the economy with further declines in consumer confidence. Jobless claims (extremely high but falling for five straight weeks) suggest the worst may be over in terms of extreme declines but those jobless claims “remain extremely weak and support expectations for the economy to shrink this quarter by the most in records dating back to the 1940’s.”
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, a weekly confidence indicator, declined in 12 of the last 13 weeks. The measure tanked in the last week of January at 67.3 to 39.3, the steepest decline in the three decades of this data.
Home sales are already down -30%, according to Zillow, and are expected to crater in the coming months. Mortgage applications for purchase, a real-time indicator, have fallen -27% since the first two weeks of January.
Restaurants have been hit the hardest among all industries. Bookings, according to OpenTable, have dropped a stomach wrenching -99%!
According to Winger and Orlik, “The high-frequency data paint a grim picture. Soaring jobless claims, empty restaurants, and a falling count for active oil rigs show the breadth and depth of the blow to the economy.”
Adding to this cheery note, Sam Zell, billionaire real estate investor known for buying “troubled” assets, believes the COVID pandemic will leave a comparable kind of impact on the economy and society as the Great Depression 80 years ago. Zell said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, “Too many people are anticipating a kind of V-like recovery. We’re all going to be permanently scarred by having lived through this…extraordinary shock.”
Thanks to Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Television.
Also read: Could This Be the Mother of All Financial Crises?, Another 4.34M File for Unemployment Insurance Benefits, Direct Access – Self Guided Home Tours from Redfin
