Home prices hit +19.1% y/y in October but were slightly lower than price surges in recent months.

Home Price Growth Hit Near-Historic Rate of +19.1% in October

According to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, home prices jumped +19.1% y/y in October to a near-historic level but just slightly lower than home price surges in recent months.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said, “…October’s +19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by (CoreLogic) data.”  (FYI, Lawless said, “…the top three highest readings were the three months immediately preceding October.”)

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Though October’s month-to-month home price gains continued to decelerate for the sixth consecutive month, home price increases remained above the seasonal decline typical of October.

Metros with the Highest Price Growth in October

Strong demand in smaller, warmer and more affordable areas of the country pushed prices in October.  Metros with the strongest home price growth in October included:

  • Phoenix – +32% but down from 33.1% in September
  • Tampa – +29%
  • Miami – +25.7%
  • Las Vegas – +25.5%
  • Dallas – +24.6%
  • San Diego – +24.2%
  • Seattle – +22.8%
  • Charlotte – +22.5%
  • Atlanta -+21.4%
  • Denver – 20.3%
  • US – +19.1% but down from 19.7% in September
  • Los Angeles – +18.5%
  • San Francisco – +18.5%
    Portland – +17.7%
  • Boston – +15.1%
  • Detroit – +14.7%
  • New York – +14.6%
  • Cleveland – +13.3%
  • Washington DC – +12.0%
  • Minneapolis – +11.5%
  • Chicago – +11.5%

As you can see, all 20 metros saw double digit price growth in October 2021 and national home prices were +48% higher than the previous peak in terms of price growth.  However, if you were to adjust price levels for inflation, national home prices are only +11% higher than the previous peak particularly because inflation growth during the second half of 2021 led to the slowing of real price increases.

Price Growth by Market Tiers

The low-and high-tiers of the market averaged monthly price growth gains of +0.8% and +0.6%, respectively.  The middle tier of the market showed more weakened price growth in October.

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Market Indicators Point to Another Strong Year in 2022

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index suggests that despite the expected slowing of home price growth in 2022, an annual price appreciation of approximately +7% is anticipated. Likewise, sales activity is expected to bring in projected total home sales at over 7 million, the highest level since 2006.

Thanks to CoreLogic.

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