Take a look around. Home prices are still increasing nationally but the increases are slowing down. According to CoreLogic, national home prices increased 5.6% in September 2018 compared to August 2018 and are forecast to increase 4.7% y/y over the next year.
The latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) indicated that September 2018 was the slowest year/year gain since January 2017. The HPI also indicated that the lowest priced homes, homes selling for 75% or less than the specific median price within that metro, experienced significantly higher price increases than homes in other price points.
Price point categories are Lowest at -75% or less than median; Low – Middle at 75-100% of median; Middle – Moderate at 100-125% of median; Highest Price at +125% of median sale price.)
Here are both price increases and appreciation rates within each price point category:
9/18 Price Increases 9/13 – 9/18 Appreciation
Rates
Lowest Price – +8.5% y/y +47%
Low to Middle Price – +6.8% +37%
Middle to Moderate Prices – +6.1% +32%
Highest Price – +4.5% +24%
The overall HPI (all price points combined) has increased y/y every month since February 2012 and has gained +57.5% since hitting the trough in March 2011.
As of September 2018, the overall CoreLogic HPI was +5.5% higher than the pre-recession peak in April 2006. Adjusting for inflation, home prices in September 2018 increased +3.8% y/y and were -13.3% LOWER than (or were BELOW) peak home prices in 2006.
As of September 2018, Nevada and Idaho were the only two states that experienced double-digit home appreciation rates, +12.8% and +12% respectively. The top 25 highest appreciating states, in descending order, were NV, ID, UT, WV, WA CO, AZ, IN, CA, MI, RI, GA, TN, NH, OR, OH, MO, MN, KS, FL, MA, WI, NE, SC and NC.
California, Idaho and Michigan surpassed their respective pre-crisis peaks as of September 2018 and 38 states, including Washington DC, rose above their pre-crisis peaks. Connecticut was the farthest below its all-time CoreLogic HPI high and its state’s home prices continue to remain -16.4% below its respective July 2006 peak.
