Here are Tim and Julie Harris’s Top Ten 2024 Real Estate Market Predictions (Boom or BUST?)
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1. Prices will continue to rise, on average 5 to 6% nationwide.
-Some as much as 10%, some will be more stagnant.
-What happens locally will depend on your inventory and the impact of new construction.
-Rents will increase.
-Defaults and distressed real estate isn’t going to be an issue.
2. Mortgage Interest Rates will continue to trend downward.
-Likely to stabilize in the low to mid 6% range.
-Builders will still offer better interest rates through their in-house financing.
-Assumable mortgages may become more prevalent. We are already seeing this happen.
-5 and 7-year Adjustable rates will become more popular.
3. Inventory will rise as interest rates fall.
-Most sellers are also buyers, so when there are more choices to move up or down to, they’ll be more willing to list.
4. The number of Sales will rise.
-This should climb back to the 5 million sale range, but that’s still short of a ‘normal’ or balanced market. Increase in resale home sales by as much as 1,000,000 units.
-Sellers will continue to be in control.
5. Agent Migration from small and medium-sized brokerages to larger brands.
-Result of commission lawsuit
-Result of shrinking profits
-Brokerages like EXP are rising due to agent-centric opportunities beyond just commissions
6. Effect of the Commission Lawsuits: Too soon to tell, however…
-Watch for local MLSs to ‘decouple’ from NAR. Membership to NAR will drop but that doesn’t mean agents are quitting real estate.
-Flexibility of buyer-side fees may become more normal.
-Power of state and local boards will increase if NAR’s influence decreases
7. New AI empowered Team (and Brokerage) models will thrive.
– AI empowered agents will rule the roost.
-Expect AGI (beyond AI) to be the biggest reality bender since the Industrial Revolution or even the Tech Revolution.
-Soon AI will do all of your social media and other passive lead generation for you.
-AI will allow individual agents to operate as if they had a big (and expensive) team.
-AI will enable agents to not just lead generate but also do initial prequalification and even presales.
8. New Construction will continue to be hot.
-Impact on the resale market
-Don’t expect builders to flood the market; they control their own inventory
-Smaller floorplans
-New construction prices already have adjusted down by 5%
9. New Mortgage Programs will flourish. (and new Fin-Tech)
– Expect home ownership and mortgage access to become a very hot political topic. The average age of a first time buyer is now close to 40!
– 40 year mortgages. Automatic rate reductions when the rates fall etc.
– Homes will be securitized by the owner. Imagine being able to sell off the value of 10% of your home to an investor. Investor gets paid 10% of the homes value when the home sells. Their 10% investment could be used towards downpayment etc.
– Fannie and Freddie will be purchasing MBS (mortgage backed securities)
– Federal Reserve will purchase MBS.
10. 2024 will be the start of the New Roaring 20s.
– 2024 is the start of a new bull run for home sales. You thought the last boom was big…just wait. 2023 WAS the worst year for total home sales in nearly 40 years. 2023 was the bottom of th market.
-Demographics and pent up demand will push home sales up and appreciation.
-Now more than ever owning a home is part of the very fabric of being an adult and an American.
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