Some agents whisper about it among themselves; some consumers ask each other’s opinions about it in voices that crack with anxiety; CoreLogic, a data analytics company that specializes in financial, property and consumer research, writes about it. The “IT” here? Another possible housing bubble…or, HousingBubble2.
CoreLogic just came out with its Case-Schiller National Home Price Index for Q2, 2017. Its research and report zeroed in on two types of inflation…asset price inflation or the value of a dollar when it comes to buying assets like cars, houses, stuff, etc. over a given number of years and…house price inflation or the value of a dollar when it comes to paying for a house over a given number of years. In other words, what is today’s price of a house compared to the price of that same house ten years ago?
CoreLogic found that the house price index increased 5.8% year over year, not seasonally adjusted, in Q2, 2017. Translated into Housing Bubble terms, the housing price index in Q2, 2017 surpassed the housing price index at the peak of the market in Q2, 2006 by 5%.
CoreLogic compares “pairs of home price sales,” not median prices, to evaluate 2000 and 2017 home value prices. For example, a home price value was set at 100 in 2000. The home price index of that same house was set at 200 in 2017. The price of this house doubled in 17 years. Prices have doubled in most metro markets in the last 17 years.
Because most real estate experts agree that real estate is local, let’s take a look at CoreLogic’s home price index findings in several, local metro markets to get a handle on local HousingBubble2…
1. Boston – the index is now 11% above this city’s peak HB1 in 11/05
2. Seattle – the index is now 20% above its HB1 peak in 7/07
3. Denver – the index is now 43% above its HB1 peak in 8/06
4. Dallas – the index is now 42% above its HB1 peak in 6/07
5. Atlanta – prices plunged 36% and now are 2% or 38% up from its bottom
6. Portland – index gained 71% in last 5 years and now 20% up from that 71% increase
7. San Francisco – index plunged 43% and now up 10% or 53% from its bottom
8. Los Angeles – index doubled between 2002-06 then collapsed by two thirds and now up 3% on top of that 2/3 increase
9. New York condos – index never crashed and now up 19% since 2006… over 15 years, index is up 112%.
Back to the agreed upon concept that real estate is local. Real estate housing bubbles are also local. Right now, Q2, 2017, CoreLogic tells us that there is a HousingBubble2 in certain local metro markets BUT, there are not yet enough local housing bubbles to make a national housing bubble.