ATTOM Data Solutions just released its Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index. This predictive analytics index is used as an indicator that an above average ratio of homes in a given market area will likely be sold in the next 90 days.
ATTOM’s Pre-Mover Housing Index found that Chicago, Washington DC, Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta will be hot spots for a high percentage of homeowners moving into single-family homes and/or condominiums in metro areas with +500,000 people in Q3 2018.
ATTOM’s Pre-Mover Housing Index predicts hot sports among homeowners moving to metro areas with +100,000 people in Q3 2018 to be Wilmington, NC, Colorado Springs, CO, and Manchester-Nashua NH.
According to Daren Blomquist, senior vice president of ATTOM, “A higher pre-move index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the “halo effect” of a house sale. (On the other hand,) markets with low pre-mover index scores are likely to have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or a relatively weak demand from prospective buyers – or some combination of both – which is not optimal for businesses that rely on home sales.”
ATTOM Data Solutions’ Pre-Mover Housing Index uses data collected from purchase loan applications. It looks at the ratio of homes with “pre-mover” indicators in a given geography and compares those indicators with the national average. Index scores about 100 points, considered to be the national average, indicate that an above average ratio of homes in a given market will likely be sold in the next 90 days.
The lowest pre-mover indexes among major metro areas with +500,000 people include Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh, Detroit and San Francisco.
ATTOM found that the lowest pre-mover indexes among metros with +100,000 people to be Providence, Albany, San Jose, and Buffalo.
States with the highest pre-mover indexes include North Dakota, Illinois, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, New Jersey, Florida, Delaware, Delaware, Maryland and Utah.
Among the 394 counties analyzed, Chicago (Kendall County) and three of Washington DC’s counties (Loudon, Alexandria City, Spotsylvania) had the highest county pre-mover indices. Albemarle County VA (Charlottesville metro) ranked second to Kendal County in Illinois.
The lowest county pre-mover indices were San Francisco County, Queens County in NY, Westchester County in NY, Westmoreland County in PN (Pittsburgh metro), and Cameron County in TX (Brownsville-Harlingen metro).
The highest share of investment property (nation-wide 4.6% of single-family homes and condominiums) pre-movers was Memphis, Indianapolis, Knoxville, Dayton and Fort Collins-Loveland.
The highest share of second-home (nation-wide 3.2% of single-family homes and condos) pre-mover indicators were Ocean City NJ, Naples-Marco Island FL, Myrtle Beach SC, Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL and Wilmington NC.