Lawrence Yun, the chief economist with the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), presented the following data at NAR’s REALTOR Forum in May:
The Top 5 Most Popular Areas for Millennials
- Seattle – 29% of total population and 70% of newly relocated residents
- Omaha – 28% of total population and 27% of newly relocated residents
- Madison – 32% of total population and 75% of newly relocated residents
- Grand Rapids – 27% of total population and 73% of newly relocated residents
- Durham – 29% of total population and 68% of newly relocated residents
Top 10 Locations for New Buyers
- Colorado Springs – 11.1%
- Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise – 10.8%
- Cape Coral-Ft. Myers – 10.6%
- Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale – 10.0%
- Provo-Orem – 9.8%
- Tucson – 9.3%
- Boise City – 9.2%
- Tampa-St Petes-Clearwater – 9.2%
- Ogden-Clearfield – 9.0%
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford – 8.9%
Bottom 9 Locations for New Buyers
- Youngstown-Warren-Boardman – 3.6%
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission – 3.7%
- Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk – 4.5%
- Pittsburgh – 4.8%
- Syracuse – 4.9%
- Harrisburg-Carlisle – 4.9%
- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton – 5.0%
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim – 5.0%
- Rochester – 5.2%
Yun noted that the total wealth (real estate, stocks, bonds, etc.) of homeowners totaled some $104T. This number translates into being five times the total GDP. Net worth comparisons between homeowners and renters are $250,000 and $8,000 respectively. People aged 75 years and older have a total net work of $265,000 and those aged 35 years have a total net worth of $8,000.
Yun indicated that the number of housing starts up to April 2019 was short by 5-6M units.
Yun’s economic forecast, an outlier among many economists, predicts that there will be no forthcoming recession during 2019.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP Growth 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0%
Job Growth +2.5M +2.2M +2.4M +2.2M +1.5M
CPI Inflation 1.3% 2.1% 2.4% 1.2% 1.8%
Yun’s housing forecast predicts Moderate Growth. Fun bases his housing forecast on the following projections of sales and 30-year price growth rates:
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
New Home 560,000 613,000 627,000 667,000 720,000
Existing Home 5.4M 5.5M 5.3M +6% +8%
Median Growth 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% 2.34 – 3% 3.34 -6%
