Lawrence Yun, the chief economist with the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), presented the following data at NAR’s REALTOR Forum in May:

The Top 5 Most Popular Areas for Millennials 

  • Seattle – 29% of total population and 70% of newly relocated residents
  • Omaha – 28% of total population and 27% of newly relocated residents
  • Madison – 32% of total population and 75% of newly relocated residents
  • Grand Rapids – 27% of total population and 73% of newly relocated residents
  • Durham – 29% of total population and 68% of newly relocated residents

Top 10 Locations for New Buyers

  • Colorado Springs – 11.1%
  • Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise – 10.8%
  • Cape Coral-Ft. Myers – 10.6%
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale – 10.0%
  • Provo-Orem – 9.8%
  • Tucson – 9.3%
  • Boise City – 9.2%
  • Tampa-St Petes-Clearwater – 9.2%
  • Ogden-Clearfield – 9.0%
  • Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford – 8.9%

Bottom 9 Locations for New Buyers

  • Youngstown-Warren-Boardman – 3.6%
  • McAllen-Edinburg-Mission – 3.7%
  • Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk – 4.5%
  • Pittsburgh – 4.8%
  • Syracuse – 4.9%
  • Harrisburg-Carlisle – 4.9%
  • Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton – 5.0%
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim – 5.0%
  • Rochester – 5.2%

Yun noted that the total wealth (real estate, stocks, bonds, etc.) of homeowners totaled some $104T. This number translates into being five times the total GDP. Net worth comparisons between homeowners and renters are $250,000 and $8,000 respectively. People aged 75 years and older have a total net work of $265,000 and those aged 35 years have a total net worth of $8,000.

Yun indicated that the number of housing starts up to April 2019 was short by 5-6M units.

Yun’s economic forecast, an outlier among many economists, predicts that there will be no forthcoming recession during 2019.

                      2016                  2017                  2018                  2019                  2020

GDP  Growth     1.5%                 2.2%                 2.9%                2.5%                  2.0%

Job Growth       +2.5M              +2.2M               +2.4M               +2.2M                +1.5M

CPI Inflation      1.3%                 2.1%                 2.4%                 1.2%                  1.8% 

Yun’s housing forecast predicts Moderate Growth. Fun bases his housing forecast on the following projections of sales and 30-year price growth rates:

                       2016                  2017                  2018                  2019                  2020

New Home        560,000           613,000               627,000             667,000         720,000

Existing Home   5.4M               5.5M                     5.3M                   +6%             +8%

Median Growth  3.6%               4.0%                    4.5%                2.34 – 3%     3.34 -6%