CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) pulls together national, state and metro data including home price indices, distressed sales, home price forecasts and market condition indicators every month to offer a 30-year forecast horizon.
Nationally, CoreLogic’s HPI saw an y/y price increase of +3.4% in June 2019, after the first half of the year showed only a +2.9% increase in prices, the slowest first half year since 2011. Obviously, this +3.4% increase in home prices was sharply lower than last year’s +6.1% increase. All states except Connecticut, South Dakota and Delaware experienced price increases since June 2018.
States with the highest y/y price increases included:
- Idaho – +9.9%
- Utah + 7.0%
- Nevada – +6.2%
- Indiana – +5.9%
- Arizona – +5.8%
- Tennessee – +5.4%
- Wisconsin – +5.2%
- New Mexico – +5.1%
- Alabama – +5.0%
- Kansas – +5.0%
According to CoreLogic’s chief economist Dr. Frank Nothaft, “Tepid home sales have caused home prices to rise at the slowest pace for the first half of a year since 2011. Price growth continues to be faster for lower-priced, entry-level homes. With incomes up and current mortgage rates about 0.8 percentage points below what they were one year ago, home sales should have a better sales pace in the second half of 2019…leading to a quickening in price growth over the next year.”
When combining all price tiers, the slowing in price appreciation ranged from 2.2-3.4% points compared to one year ago with the lowest price tier showing the largest slowdown.
Check out how the various price tiers compared in terms of appreciation:
- lowest price tier – +5.5%
- low-mid price tier – +4.5%
- mid-moderate price tier – +3.8%
- high price tier – +2.8%
CoreLogic’s HPI indicates that home prices will increase +5.2% y/y from June 2019-June 2020. On a month over month basis, the HPI indicates an increase in home prices by +0.5%.
This latest report from CoreLogic indicates that Millennials are no longer a “trend,” they are the new, first-time buyers of today. Despite 25% of these new, first-time buyers indicating they will likely buy a home within this next year, “…43% of those surveyed indicated they either could not afford to buy a new home or are concerned they will not be able to afford a new home,” according to Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic.