With home price growth exploding +19.7% in July, now is the time to look at predictions about which cities may see the highest home price growth during the first half of 2022.
Zillow Forecast Housing Markets Most Likely to See Boom in Home Prices During First Half of 2022
In the midst of ballooning home prices (+19.7% in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index) and tanking affordability, Zillow’s Senior Economist Jeff Tucker said, “…frankly, the best predictor of upcoming price appreciation is the most recent few months of price appreciation. There’s momentum intrinsic to that time series that’s much more predictable than other prices…”
Zillow went about designing a predictive model that combines historic price levels, current market values and supply conditions in order to forecast year-over-year price growth by May 2022 in the country’s 100 largest metro markets.
From its predictive model, Zillow came up with 12 housing markets most likely to experience price growth booms through May 2022. Some, if not many of the markets on this list, have already seen home price growth hit the roof. Zillow, based on its analytics, believes many of these markets will simply raise their roofs even higher.
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Riverside CA
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +21.8%
– Reasons Riverside market ripe for price growth
– Relative affordability compared with other Southern California markets
– Considered “benchmark city of Inland Empire
– Remote workers descending from San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties
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Las Vegas NV
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +23.3%
– Reasons Las Vegas market ripe for price growth
– Affordability, no state income tax, low cost of living
– Price per square foot double what it was 5 years ago
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Boise ID
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +23.3%
– Reasons Boise market ripe for price growth
– Influx of retirees, tech/biotech/finance commuters from San Diego, Silicon Valley and Los Angeles
– Great climate, low crime, family oriented, affordable
9.Salt Lake City UT
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +23.5%
– Reasons Salt Lake market ripe for price growth
– No inventory and no break in demand
– “No end in sight” to market imbalance
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Spokane WA
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 -+24.2%
– Reasons Spokane market ripe for price growth
– four distinct seasons, natural beauty, small time feel, big city amenities
– conveniently proximate by car and/or flight to Boise, Seattle, Los Angeles, international destinations
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San Jose CA
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +24.5%
– Reasons San Jose market poised for price growth
– High-tech capital of the world
– Perfect weather
– Easy access to Santa Cruz, Monterey, Carmel, Napa, San Francisco, Sausalito
– Crazy rich clientele
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San Diego CA
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +24.7%
– Reasons San Diego market poised for price growth
– Employment/ higher education/entertainment opportunities booming
– High prices considered to be “weather tax” for 70-75 degrees for 330 days a year and little/no rain
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Ogden UT
– Forecast home price change by May 2021 – +25.2%
– Reasons Ogden’s market poised for price growth
– Utah no longer best kept secret in the US – market imbalance continuing
– Room to spread out, four distinct seasons with lots to do in each season
– Relative affordability
– Lots of employment opportunities
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Phoenix AZ
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +26.2%
– Reasons Phoenix market ripe for price growth
– Buyer demand relentless and, in some cases, over the top with buyers offering tuition payments for sellers’ children plus offers of +10-30% above listing prices
– Affordability, tax friendliness, constant summers
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Provo UT
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +28.2%
– Reasons Provo market ripe for price growth
– Higher childbirth rate than everywhere else in country
– Influx of Millennials, huge out-of-state student population who stay, get married, have kids and then grandparents move to be close to grandkids
2. Fort Myers FL
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +28.2%
– Reasons Ft. Myers market ripe for price growth
– Affordability!
– Influx of buyers from Texas, Arizona and California plus out-of-state students
– Sufficient new builds
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Austin TX
– Forecast home price change by May 2022 – +37.1%
– Reasons Austin market poised for price growth
– Tech industry/higher educational/entertainment opportunities driving city’s transformation
– No state income tax, lots of space, comparative affordability
Thanks to Zillow and National Mortgage News
