Today’s show is part 2 of ‘2022 Real Estate Market predictions.’ In this show, you will hear how Tim and Julie Harris researched and created these predictions.
We start with these understandings:
FORBEARANCES do NOT = Foreclosures.
Definition of Forbearance:
Forbearance is when your mortgage servicer, that’s the company that sends your mortgage statement and manages your loan, or lender allows you to pause or reduce your payments for a limited period of time. Forbearance does not erase what you owe. You’ll have to repay any missed or reduced payments in the future.
It was predicted that there would be a tsunami of new foreclosures as a result of the 5 million forbearances which occurred at the beginning and then further into the Pandemic.
That did NOT happen and there is no credible proof it will.
Why?
*Credit scores are way higher now, much less risk to lenders.
*760++ credit scores on average for new mortgage loans.
* Mortgage qualifications are far more stringent than the housing crash that happened 14 years ago.
*Homeowners have more equity in their homes than ever before. Matter of fact, there is a record amount of home equity. Consider the inflation (appreciation) of homes values over the last 12 months alone. In most housing markets ‘appreciation’ exceeds 20%! If a homeowner has to sell they can easily afford to do so vs suffering a foreclosure.
*Its widely believed that the government simply won’t allow there to be foreclosures in significant numbers. The government learned from the housing crash. Want proof? Remember the eviction moratorium?
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Now let’s look at the 2 additional factors which can not be underestimated:
1: Enthusiasm for housing. After the housing crash, people lost their will to buy homes (unless they were a ‘deal’), for several years. People wondered if ‘the American Dream’ would come back, or die forever. Eventually ‘frugality fatigue’ happened, rates started to come down, loans became easier to get and the ‘enthusiasm’ for housing bigger than ever before.
Being in the real estate industry has become aspirational. HGTV, Bravo, even National Geographic all have wall-to-wall home shows on all day. Everyone is an armchair Realtor, Flipper, Investor, or Vacation Rental expert. What did most people watch during the pandemic lockdowns? (Real estate shows)
2: Inflation! In non-inflationary times, inflation still exists, but it’s at such a smaller rate of 2-3%. Housing prices historically mirrored the inflation rate. You could actually figure out how to price a home based on what someone paid, then take the inflation rate multiplied by the number of years owned and end up with a pretty accurate price.
“Rising inflation shouldn’t deter house hunters from buying a home, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Friday.
History has proven owning a home is a good hedge against inflation since the “Whip Inflation Now” days of the 1970s, Lawrence Yun told the trade group gathered in San Diego for its first in-person conference in two years.
An interesting fact, in all but two of the past five decades, average home price gains have matched or exceeded the inflation rate, Yun said. And in the two cases where home prices lagged inflation — during the 1980s and the 2000’s — they were just a tiny amount below the pace at which the cost of goods increased.
Tomorrow’s show is the start of the actual predictions.
