Today’s Real Estate Coaching Radio is part 3 of 2022 Real Estate Predictions.
2022 Housing Prediction #1: First things first, no housing crash or correction is on the horizon. All factors indicate a strong housing market in 2022- 2023. There will be cooling of home prices in some markets, but no crash is expected. Again, no housing crash is predicted.
2022 Housing Prediction #2: Homes will continue to appreciate (aka Inflate) at historic rates. Goldman Sachs predicts a 16% increase in 2022. In times of inflation, hard assets like real estate are the safe havens vs leaving your money in the bank. Also, consider the effects of the Millenial and Baby Boomer generations on housing demand. Baby Boomers will be leaving TRILLIONS for dollars to their children.
From Forbes:
“A study shows that Millennials will hold five times as much wealth as they have today and the group is anticipated to inherit over $68 trillion from their Baby Boomer parents by the year 2030. This will represent one of the greatest wealth transfers in modern times.”
From MBA:
“…the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry trade group based in Washington, D.C., which recently published its 2022 forecast. While the Mortgage Bankers Association foresees the median price of existing homes posting a 15.3% year-over-year gain to $362,000 in the first quarter of 2022, it sees prices beginning to fall as the year progresses. The group expects the median price of existing homes to end 2022 at $352,000…”
Counterpoint, what could cause home sales to slow?
– Interest rates actually spike higher than expected and slow the housing market, but this is unlikely. However, this is incredibly unlikely and would require a sea change to the prevailing political and Fed approach.
– Many are fearful of a conflict with China or another highly disruptive factor that creates uncertainty. Uncertainty leads to an overall lack of confidence. When people are feeling those ways they tend to hold off any big decisions, like buying (or selling) a home.
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2022 Housing Prediction #3: To be very clear, home sales velocity will continue to be strong. We’re already seeing that as more homes come on the market, creating higher inventory levels, the Days on the Market are virtually unchanged. This demonstrates that demand is STILL higher than supply. National Association of Realtors is expecting home sales to exceed the highest year on record which was 2006.
Counterpoint?
The sales velocity could slow if inventory drops to the point where there’s just not enough available inventory. New construction and the tech-enabled remote working trend can close the gap. The shift to move away from cities is continuing.
2022 Housing Prediction #4: There will be longer days on the market but not by much, and nothing catastrophic. Even with slightly higher inventory and more homes being built, NAR and Core Logic predict we may reach a 2.4 month supply. This is still historically low.
Counterpoint? If the builders actually achieve the ability to scale up faster, creating so much inventory that Days on the Market stretch out, we could be wrong. There’s a lot working against that. Or institutional investors were to sell their massive inventories of rental homes. Not likely.
2022 Housing Prediction #5: The first-time buyer will continue to be your most frustrated buyer. Only 2% of transactions last year were under $200,000, also the investor’s favorite price range. FHA and VA buyers still struggle to compete in nearly every market. First-time buyers need 5 years to save for a 20% down payment.
2022 Housing Prediction #6: Builders will continue to increase production, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasting single-family housing starts to be around 1.134 million. This could just be the beginning according to even higher projections for 2023 and 2024.
Counterpoint? Supply chain constraints caused by the government’s reaction to Covid and or other ‘Black Swan events”?
Listen to tomorrow’s show for Predictions 7-12
