Though price spikes will not be as dramatic in 2022 as in 2020 and 2021, the imbalance of high demand and low supply will likely keep prices competitive as buyers seek to secure low mortgage rates.

Price Growth Seen as Competitive in 2022 though Less Robust as 2021

Secondary cities in smaller, more affordable areas have been favored by younger and remote workers for a while now.  Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist with Zillow, sees these preferences continuing into this new year.

Tucker said, “…the best predictor of upcoming price appreciation is the most recent few months of price appreciation.”  Using a model combining historic price levels, current market values and housing supply, Zillow forecast year-over-year home price growth by May 2022.

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12 Markets Forecast for Highest Home Price Growth by May 2022

  1. Austin TX – +37.1% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Jobs, jobs, jobs; tech growth, individual & institutional investors; available land to build in outskirts
    2. No state income tax
  2. Fort Myers, FL – +28.2% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Relative affordability; sufficient new builds available.
    2. Favorable state tax structure
  3. Provo UT – +28.2% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Millennials are largest demographic & city has highest birth rate in country
    2. Average house goes from list to contract in average of six days due to booming tech industry and in-migration from Washington and California
  4. Phoenix AZ – +26.2% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Buyer demand through the roof, offers from +10% – +30% over list price
    2. Home builders increasing their production & prices with bidding wars on lots
  5. Ogden UT – +25.2% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Major inventory problem continuing
    2. More space available
  6. San Diego CA – +24.7% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. High prices considered to be “weather tax” for 330 days of sunshine
    2. Demand “extremely strong” with inventory being absorbed faster than it becomes available
  7. San Jose CA – +24.5% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. “High tech capital of the world” filled with “crazy rich techies” living in perfect weather conditions
    2. Proximity to Santa Cruz, Carmel, Monterey, Napa, San Francisco and. Sausalito
    3. Cash buyers make up +20% of market (1 in every 797 people worth more than $30M)
  8. Spokane WA – +24.2% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Total imbalance of supply and demand
    2. Lakes, mountains, international airport for easy travel to Seattle/Boise with great amenities
  9. Salt Lake City UT – +23.5% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. No break in demand with home prices and rents escalating
    2. Jobs, tech growth, Millennial buyers and out-of-state in-migration
  10. Boise ID – +23.3% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. No supply with 35% cash buyers
    2. Tech commuters to Silicon Valley, finance people commute to LA and aerospace and biotech people commute to San Diego; lots of California retirees; relatively affordable
  11. Las Vegas NV – +23.2% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Relative lower cost of living; no state income tax
    2. First-time buyers, in-migration from other states currently make buying and renting an issue
  12. Riverside Ca – +21.8% price growth forecast by May 2022
    1. Benchmark city of Inland Empire and relatively affordable compared to rest of Southern California
    2. Supply and demand imbalance persists
    3. Mecca for remote workers


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Thanks to Zillow and National Mortgage News.

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