The monthly US National Home Price NSA Index from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for January 2019 was just released. The annual price gain for single-family houses was 4.3%, down from 4.6% in December 2018.

The 10-city annual home price increase came in at 3.2%, down from 3.7% in December 2018. The 20-city annual home price increase was 3.6&, down from 4.1T% in December 2018. Overall, this index indicated that home price levels in Santa FE “were now back” to price levels seen during the winter of 2007.

The highest home price gains y/y within the National Home Price Index included…

  • Las Vegas – +10.5% price increase
  • Phoenix – +7.5% (only city reporting greater price increases in year ending January 2019 when compared with the year ending in December 2018.
  • Minneapolis, Tampa, Charlotte – +5.1%
  • Detroit – +5.0%

Meanwhile, home price gains in Seattle went from 12.8% in January 2018 to 4.1% in January 2019. San Francisco home prices saw a similar slide from 10.2% in January 2018 to just 1.8% in January 2019.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for the S&P Dow Jones Indices, said, “Home price gains continue to shrink.” (Phoenix was the one and only city that saw any appreciable acceleration in home price gains.”

Blitzer as significantly referenced mortgage rates by saying they “…are as important as prices for many home buyers.” From rates as high as 4.95% in November 2018, rates stood at 4.28% as February 2019. As of March 26 2019, the 30-year fixed rate was 3.75%.

Blitzer lastly indicated that sales of existing homes slid from Q4 2017 – January 2019 before home sales jumping to 4.9M units in February 2019.

His last words, “It…remains to be seen if recent low mortgages rates and smaller price gains can sustain improved home sales.”