1. 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it’s very communicable.
2. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people).
3. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
4. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage.
5. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02).
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6. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
7. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
8. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
9. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. No reason to believe that this is going to lead to a long term depression/ recession ala 07-09.
It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
10. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well-capitalized.