Key Highlights

  • CoreLogic 2020 Storm Surge Report looks at economic risks of hurricane season complicated by COVID-19 pandemic realities
  • Natural disasters known to negatively affect mortgage delinquencies
  • COVID pandemic realities could negatively affect mortgage delinquencies

The CoreLogic 2020 Storm Surge Report indicates that this year’s hurricane season is likely to produce an above-normal season with 13-19 named storms and 3-6 major hurricanes based upon official data produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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CoreLogic’s annual report identifies metros for single-family and multifamily residences most likely to be at risk of storm surge this year. It also identifies whatever operational complications the COVID-19 pandemic may cause to our country’s mortgage delinquencies and responses to those hurricanes and storm surges.

Know that storm surges are abnormal rises in water generated by storms. Such surges can dump a single cubic yard of seawater weighing nearly one ton on anything in its wake. According to Dr. Thomas Jeffrey, Principal, Science and Analytics at Core Logic, “Storm surge has historically been the deadliest and most destructive hazard we deal with. Now, potentially compounded by the pandemic, it has never been more important to pay attention to storm warnings and prepare for the possibility of hurricanes making landfall this year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.”

Looking at the top 15 metros at risk of storm surge in 2020 for single-family residential units, CoreLogic identified

 

1 – 5                            6 – 10                         11 – 15

Miami FL                    Fort Myers FL           Philadelphia PA

New York NY               Houston TX              Charleston SC

Tampa FL                    Bradenton FL            Myrtle Beach SC

New Orleans LA           Naples FL                  Lafayette LA

Virginia Beach VA        Jacksonville FL            Beaumont TX

The top 15 metros at risk of storm surge in 2020 for multifamily residential units, according to CoreLogic, are… 

1 – 5                            6 – 10                         11 – 15

New York NY                Philadelphia PA            Bradenton FL

Miami FL                      New Orleans LA           Daytona Beach FL

Boston MA                   Virginia Beach VA         Savannah GA

Fort Myers FL               Naples FL                    Providence RI

Tampa FL                     Jacksonville FL             Baltimore MD

(Remember that location is VERY influential when assessing possible damage…lower category storms can wipe out densely populated metros…proximity to coastline…higher levels in multifamily units tend to be less impacted by storm surges.)

The combination of hurricane season and COVID-19, according to CoreLogic, may seriously impact both the rate of mortgage delinquencies and the rate of response to disaster. Already, CoreLogic analyses indicates that mortgage delinquency could rise “four-to-ten fold from February’s 1.2% in 18 to 24 months.” High-risk storm surge cities “also face heightened risk of mortgage delinquencies” based on elevated rates already in place in metros with spikes in unemployment due to COVID.

In terms of storm surge preparation and recovery in hard hit COVID-19 metros, look for compromised and more expensive services, goods, materials and labor forces and reduced numbers of shelters/hotels, food providers and transportation services that could last for 6 – 12 months, according to CoreLogic. Also know that insurance solutions and technology leveraging may be heavily impacted as well.

Thanks to CoreLogic.

Also read: Single-Family Home Sector Leads the Rental Market, More Are House Rich and Leaving Their Riches in Their Houses, Population Growth in the South and West Driving Up New Home Sales & Prices