- ATTOM Data Solutions Q2 2020 Special Report that highlights housing markets more or less vulnerable to pandemic
- Foreclosure forecasting
- Long-term effects on prices, rates and mortgage volumes
- Insights from Todd Teta, ATTOM’s Chief Product and Technology Officer and Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Analytics with Haus
ATTOM Data Solutions and Haus, a co-investing alternative to homeownership, came together last week to host a webinar on the topic of “Coronavirus Impact on Distressed Markets.” Each company was represented by an outstanding industry thought leader, Todd Teta, the Chief Product and Technology Officer of ATTOM, and Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Analytics with Haus.
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We can all agree that the coronavirus pandemic completely upended the US housing market when it grabbed hold in March. Prior to March, the foreclosure rate in the country was at historically low rates, home prices were continuing their +90 consecutive weeks of gains and real estate professionals were welcoming the now largest demographic into homeownership.
Here are some of Todd Teta and Ralph McLaughlin’s insights into this current coronavirus housing market:
- Based upon ATTOM’s Q2 2020 Home Affordability Report, two/thirds of western counties are now less affordable than they were just one or two quarters ago. Potential and existing homeowners needed an increase in their average local wages in order to afford major homeownership costs and expenses.
- ATTOM’s Q2 2020 Foreclosure Market Report indicated that the West had the smallest percentage of counties with rising foreclosure rates.
- Teta expects to see an increase in foreclosure filings of 69-115% over the next 18 months beginning in late Q3 2020 as forbearances expire. ***
- Teta’s expectations are driven more by unemployment figures than forbearances.
- Teta also expects East Coast and Northeastern IL to be more at risk from foreclosure damage connected to the pandemic and that areas in the Midwest and West appear to be better positioned and at less risk.
- McLaughlin sees the likeliness of rising foreclosure cases in 2021, based upon Haus forecasting through 2025. ***
- With rising foreclosure rates, McLaughlin anticipates falling home prices.
- McLaughlin anticipates that current demand will not hold and that purchase activity will fall below normal through 2021.
- McLaughlin also believes that low interest rates will continue to drive the refinance market as well as loan restructuring
- Both Teta an McLaughlin view the housing markets in Nevada, Florida, New Jersey, New York and pockets in the West that were seen as overvalued as being particularly vulnerable to the pandemic.
- Both agree there will be a roughly 70% increase in foreclosures over next 18-24 months. That +70% increase translates into 600,000 more foreclosures than the country would have seen without COVID.
- Both agree the coronavirus housing market will look more similar to the 2015 market rather than the late 2009 market
- Both agree home price declines will be slight, roughly 0-2%
On the plus side of this pandemic housing market, Teta and McLaughlin expect this recessionary environment to bounce back fairly quickly, perhaps 1.5-2 years, rather than slog along slowly recovering as it did with the Great Recession. Though it’s likely renters will not convert into homeowners quickly, Teta and McLaughlin agree that the aggregate size of the Millennial demographic is expected to kick up home demand and actually trump some of the negative aspects of the market by late 2021/early 2022.
Thanks to ATTOM Data Solutions and Haus for Todd Teta and Ralph McLaughlin.