Exodus from New York, San Jose and San Francisco slowed in 2021.

Homebuyer Migration Patterns Changing in 2021

Yes, relocating homebuyers are still relocating to more affordable, less dense metros BUT, according to CoreLogic, there have been fewer relocating homebuyers than there were in 2020.

Using its own Loan Application Data to zero in on trends in owner-occupant homebuyer mobility and migration from January through July 2021, CoreLogic compared 2021’s migration patterns to those in 2020.

On a macro-level, the OUT/IN ratio for the top 15 metros with the highest out-migration remained about the same in 2021 as in 2020.  On a micro-level, however, the OUT/IN ratio dropped in some expensive coastal metros.

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OUT/IN Ratios for Top Metros with Highest Outbound Loan Applications in 2021

Los Angeles had the highest OUT-migration of all the metros from January to July 2021.

Take a look:

  • Los Angeles
    • 2020 – 5.4
    • 2021 – 5.9
  • New York
    • 2020- 5.9
    • 2021 – 4.9
  • San Francisco
    • 2020 – 3.3
    • 2021 – 2.8
  • San Jose
    • 2020 – 6.7
    • 2021 – 5.1
  • Washington DC
    • 2020 – 1.8
    • 2021 – 1.6
  • Seattle
    • 2020 – 2.6
    • 2021 – 2.6
  • Chicago
    • 2020 – 1.9
    • 2021 – 1.8
  • San Diego
    • 2020 – 2.4
    • 2021 – 2.6

Notice that fewer homebuyers in expensive coastal metros such as New York, San Francisco and San Jose migrated out of those metros in 2021 than in 2020.

IN/OUT Ratios for Metros with Highest Inbound Loan Application from January through July 2021

The metros with the highest IN-migration activity in 2021 included:

  • Riverside CA
  • Las Vegas NV
  • Lakeland FL
  • Myrtle Beach SC

True, all of these metros are more affordable than expensive, coastal metros HOWEVER, Riverside CA and Stockton CA both experienced decreases of their IN/Out ratios during 2021.  CoreLogic attributes those decreases to more Californians simply moving out of the state in 2021 than they did in 2020.

Return to On-Site Offices Likely to Change OUT/IN Ratios

CoreLogic indicates that as more people slowly return to on-site offices, there may be more inbound homebuyers returning to the expensive, coastal metros of San Jose, San Francisco and New York City.  Property sales in those metros definitely support that may be…but, because CoreLogic tends to collect and compile its data two months behind current calendar dates, it’s too soon to tell .

Thanks to CoreLogic.


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