Real estate markets worldwide are down shifting yet remaining resilient.
Residential Real Estate Returning to Earth with Continuing Strength
Expert panelists speaking at Mansion Global’s Luxury Real Estate Conference agreed that the residential real estate market all over the world is catching its breath after having its best first half of a year in five years.
Paul Tostevin, director for Savills World Research, said, “World city prime residential markets had the best first half of a year since 2016. Seventy percent of cities monitored saw positive growth in the first half of this year.”
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Cities Never Dead
Even cities that rely on foreign investment are already bouncing back stronger than pre-pandemic. Demand is soaring in New York, according to Vasiliki Yiannoulis-Riva, Withersworldwide partner. Savills’ Tostevin said that transaction volumes for London properties priced above L5M or US$6.7M were up +61% y/y.
Meanwhile, secondary markets with more space and lower home prices that access prime metros have also seen a significant influx of buyers. Yiannoulis-Riva said that she is guiding investors towards “…Nashville, Austin, Atlanta, cities foreign investors don’t tend to think about, but are up and coming and vibrant because people are moving there for a higher quality of life.”
Markets Beginning to Normalize, NOT Burst
Just because international housing markets are down-shifting from an unsustainable frenzied pace, don’t expect any price drops or less competition. Inventory remains low, demand remains high, and prices continue to increase.
Molly Boesel, principal economist with CoreLogic, said, “We do expect to see double-digit price growth continue throughout 2021 and into 2022. There’s really short supply and really high demand. Later in 2022 we do expect price growth to slow to about 2% or 3% annual growth rate.”
Danielle Hale, chief economist with Realtor.com, said, “The housing market has gone from frenzied to just hot…”
George Ratiu, senior economist and manager with Economic Research under the umbrella of Realtor.com, reminded all conference participants that “In a five-or six-year span, 25 to 30M Millennials are turning 30 (and entering the sales market.) Builders are barely keeping pace. So we’ll have these dynamics with us for the short to medium term.”
Foreign Investors Expected to Get Off the Sidelines & Re-Enter the Market
Yiannoulis-Riva is expecting to see in-bound investment into US markets as travel restrictions lift.
Likewise, US and Canadian investors are becoming a force in foreign markets, often spurred by interest in visa and citizenship programs, according to Dominic Volek, group head of private clients with Henley & Partners.
Tostevin believes the trend towards “co-primary” residences will blossom as “…being in a second home for several months has become more viable…we’re seeing a lot of international demand return to rural and coastal France…and a lot of…interest in Italian areas like Tuscany.”
Space & Lifestyle Amenities Will Remain Top Priorities
CoreLogic’s Boesel said, “Look for home buyers and renters to continue to want more space. With hybrid working, the home office might become a permanent feature of the house.”
All industry experts agree that key drivers in the housing market are and will be health, wellness, outdoor space and community access. Buyers in single-family residences, estates, family compounds and luxury developments worldwide are looking as far ahead as “…a new type of community…” that reflects a “…world that has become more seamless and more about integrating between public and private, between buildings and neighborhoods…” said Eran Chen, founder and executive director of EDA.
Thanks to MansionGlobal.