Just one in four consumers believe that now is a good time to buy a house.
Homebuyer Sentiment Drops to All-Time Low in January
The latest National Housing Survey done monthly by Fannie Mae indicated that only one in four consumers thought that it was a good time to buy a home. This one in four response is a record low for this survey dating back to 2010.
Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan pointed to affordability and supply limitations as the roadblocks for those considering a home purchase. Duncan said, “Younger consumers – more so than other groups – expect home prices to rise even further, and they also reported a greater sense of macroeconomic pessimism. Additionally, while the younger respondents are typically the most optimistic about their future finances, this month their sense of optimism around their personal financial situation declined. All of this points back to the current lack of affordable housing stock…”
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Fannie’s Methodology
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) takes data from the National Housing Survey and distills it into one single number. That one number dropped -2.4 points to 71.8 in January.
Translation – 70% of consumers indicated that it was a bad time to buy a home in January 2022.
In terms of it being a good time to sell a home, most consumers (69%) said “yes” in January but fewer than those who said “yes” in December (76%). The net share who said it’s a good time to sell dropped -12% points from December to January.
Survey Results Consistent with Fannie’s Latest Housing & Economic Forecast
The drop in Fannie’s HPSI is consistent with its latest housing and economic forecast. This forecast projects that rising mortgage rates and record high home price appreciation are likely to price many potential homebuyers out of the 2022 housing market.
Fannie’s economists anticipate that sales of existing single-family homes will drop -3.2% this year. If this prediction is realized, perhaps, just perhaps, home price appreciation may cool a bit in 2022.
More Results from Fannie’s National Housing Survey in January 2022
Will home prices continue rising?
– 43% of consumers expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months.
– 14% of consumers expect home prices to go down.
– 35% of consumers expect home prices to stay the same over the next 12 months.
Will mortgage rates increase over the next 12 months?
– 58% of consumers expect mortgage rates to go up over the next 12 months.
– 4% of consumers think mortgage rates will go down over the next year.
– 28% of consumers expect mortgage rates to stay the same over the next 12 months.
If having to move, would consumers buy or rent?
– 66% of consumers said they would buy a house.
– 28% said they would rent.
Is the economy on the right or wrong track?
– 66% of consumers think the economy is on the wrong track.
– 24% of consumers think the economy is on the right track.
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Thanks to Fannie Mae and Inman.
