CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) is designed to offer early indications of home price trends and signal future market condition indicators.

National Changes in CoreLogic’s Home Price Index in May 2022

According to CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI), home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, jumped +20.2% y/y in May 2022.  Home prices increased +1.8% m/m.

Using its HPI Forecast tool, CoreLogic anticipates that home prices will rise +5% y/y and +1.0% from May 2022 to June 2022.

Both CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index anticipate that single-family home prices will increase moderately into May 2023.

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Economic Impact on Home Prices

Though home price growth eased slightly from April to May 2022, that price growth continued to hit double digits y/y for the 16th consecutive month.  All states plus Washington DC saw annual price appreciation. 13 states posted home price gains of more than +20%.

The Federal Reserve did accomplish its goal of cooling buyer demand in the spring’s home selling season by raising interest rates.  CoreLogic believes that higher interest rates will likely contribute to slowing home price growth over the next year.

According to Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic, said, “Slowing home price growth reflects the dampening consequence of higher mortgage rates on housing demand, which was the intention.  With monthly mortgage expenses up about 50% from only a few months ago, fewer buyers are now competing for continually limited inventory.  And while annual home price growth still exceeds 20%, we expect to see a rapid deceleration in the rate of growth over the coming year.  Nevertheless, the normalization of overheated buying conditions should bring about more of a balance between buyers and sellers and a healthier overall housing market.”

Top State & Metro Changes in May 2022

Among nationwide home prices increasing +20.2% y/y in May, states with the highest year-over-year home price increases included:

  • Florida – +33.2%
  • Tennessee – +27.4%
  • Arizona – 27.5%

The top ten metro changes in home price increases during May 2022 included:

  • Phoenix – +28.7%
  • Las Vegas – +26.5%
  • San Diego – +24.5%
  • Miami – +24.3%
  • Denver – +20.3%
  • Houston – +17.6%
  • Los Angeles – +17.0%
  • Chicago – +11.1%
  • Boston – +11.1%
  • Washington – +10.0%

Red Flag Warnings on Markets at Highest Risk of Home Price Declines

CoreLogic identified five metro areas with a high risk (+70% probability) of price declines over the next twelve-month period.  These five metros include:

  1. Bremerton-Silverdale WA
  2. Bellingham WA
  3. Boise City ID
  4. Tacoma-Lakewood WA
  5. Olympia-Tumwater WA

Thanks to CoreLogic.

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