Breaking News: Is 2023 The Worst Year For Housing Since The Crash?

Welcome back to America’s #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America’s #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly 512-758-0206

With fewer transactions happening, skittish buyers and sellers, investors on the sideline, and a lot of uncertainty in the market, it’s time to embrace the lead sources which are actually transacting!  

Projected home sales for 2023 have been revised DOWN to only 4.1 million. (may not include all transactions example: new construction). Home sales haven’t been this low since 2008.

Good News: When the market returns (and it will) there will be a massive long-term surge. People are involuntarily on the sidelines. Remember what happened after frugality fatigue?

Bad News: We have at least another 6-12 months of this slog before there is a meaningful shift in the housing market. What to look out for Lower rates, more inventory, new construction starts, migration trends, and demographics. 

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Rules for today’s show:

1) Yes, of course, you can buy (mostly) buyer leads. The intent of today’s podcast is to provide you with information that equips you to understand the nature of what type of client is actually transacting and how to work with them without paying referral fees. 

2) Please understand that people always need a place to live. With that understanding, people will always need to move up, move down…move for a job, move for financial reasons, etc. In this market, we are dealing with the HAVE TO level clients, not the WANT TO. 

3) Get used to this type of market. We are in a new market cycle that will last years. Stop waiting for rates to fall, and new homes to be built. You must bloom where you are planted. 

Let’s start with a reality check. Yes, homes are actually selling.  Take a look in your MLS at your daily hot sheet for encouragement.  There are buyers who are buying and sellers who are selling! Many of you are having a fantastic year because you’re taking action and being much more proactive.  If that doesn’t describe you, or if you want to boost your momentum even further, today’s show is for you!

These are the types of clients who are transacting now. 

Note: Flippers, vacation home buyers, recreational movers, new construction speculators are largely on the sidelines. 

Profiles of clients who are transacting now:

1.     Millennials.  First-time buyers with good credit, great jobs, ratios, and two incomes who aren’t worried about the interest rate, figure they can refinance later and just want to buy a home.  Many of these buyers are buying new construction.

2.     Downsizing Baby Boomers.  Their homes are paid off, they aren’t breaking up with a low-interest rate and they’re paying cash for their next home, condo or assisted living.  The house is too big, taxes too much and they want to make a change.  Some are moving out of state (headed to Florida, Tennessee, and Texas mostly).   Don’t forget to connect with an agent out of state for referrals!

3.     Divorce.  Sad but true, a divorce decree equals a home sale.  But this is where you can help two people do three transactions.  (The listing and two buyer sides in many cases).  Connect with the divorce attorneys and take them to coffee.  They can refer you a stream of clients who have to sell.

4.     New Construction.  It’s 30% of what’s for sale right now.  Connect directly with as many builders as you can to find out what opportunities they have for you to take advantage of.  Here’s the shortlist:

-For your buyers who can’t find inventory: they can buy a ‘spec’ home or build something new.  They won’t have to compete and the timing can work out better for them, especially if they also have a home to sell.

-Hold the model home open for the builder on days their sales reps aren’t covering. Sundays are often available!  The builder will pay you for buyers you sell their product to and you keep the leads who don’t build with them.

-Connect with new build reps and have them refer the resale sellers to you!

5.     Relocation.  Does your company have a relocation program?  Are you certified in it?  This is ONE way to work Relocation, but not the only way.  Which of your past clients relocated into your town with a corporation?  Who can they connect you with in their Human Resources department?  Advantage: Relocating executives are highly motivated and qualified and make buying decisions quickly. They tend to be in higher price ranges.  Disadvantage: Relocation fees of up to 42%.

6.     Your own Past Clients and Center of Influence (your ‘database’)!  When you are proactively communicating with them regularly, at least 10% will transact with you every year.  

Example:  200 people in your database, divided by 40 work days (that’s a 60 day or 2-month period) = 5 contacts every work day and you’ll speak with your whole list every 2 months.  Think what that will do to your repeat and referral business.

The Math:  200 people x $400k average sale price = $80m worth of your own ‘shadow inventory’, x 10% who will transact = $8m in volume potentially.  Using an average commission, there’s at least $240,000 waiting for you just embracing this point!

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