Key Highlights
- 2021 to mark beginning of 5-10 year surge in housing demand
- Predicting increase of +20% in 2021 home sales on top of +5% increase in 2020
- US homeownership rate to surpass +69% for first time since 2005
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Leave it to Tim and Julie Harris to stick out their necks and predict that 2021 will be the kick-off year of a 5-10 year surge in home sales, They predict sales volume to jump some +20% in 2021 alone, on top of the +5% increase in home sales during 2020.
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“What?” you might say. “How can an increase in home sales of +20% in 2021 be a starting point for a 5-10 year surge in housing demand?”
Tim and Julie Harris believe that historically low mortgage interest rates will remain in place for some time to come. We’ve already seen low mortgage interest rates in 2020 spur purchase loan volume to a 13-year high as well as mortgage refinancing demand explode to triple-digit-percentage-increases as consumers continue to take advantage of those low rates. Tim and Julie think this demand will only intensify in 2021 and beyond.
Why? Technology has unlocked office buildings via remote working and Americans are on the move. Rather than having to live near their jobs, often in highly dense and expensive urban environments, people are choosing to live where they want to live and work remotely without the fear of losing their jobs.
Tim and Julie think we’ve seen just the beginning of this “Great Migration.” The wealthiest among us kicked open the office doors first and now anyone and everyone who has the ability to work remotely is doing the same. Not only do these remote workers want to live where they want with more space around them, they also want to live more affordably in lower taxed states such as Florida, Texas, Tennessee and Nevada.
Fly-over states no more, fly-to states such as Wisconsin and Michigan that have semi-rural and rural areas within 2-3 hours of a major metro area will become more and more desirable places to live. People want to live in places where they’ve gone to vacation, whether those places are in the mountains or by the water or in small towns. Again, low interest rates, technology advances and high-speed broadband make all of this possible.
This COVID-inspired, tech-enabled “Great Migration” begun in 2020 will bring, in Tim and Julie’s view, lifestyle and quality of life issues center stage in peoples’ decision-making algorithm. Hyper-speed gentrification in small town/suburban/rural settings and perceived social unrest in dense urban settings will only exacerbate that decision-making.
Coming up – Part II of Tim and Julie’s Bold Predictions for 2021.
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