Part II of this series continues summarizing David Haggith’s premise that a Housing Market Crisis 2.0 “…appears inevitable.” From Haggith’s “play-by-play” of the run-up to this “inevitably,” Part II offers Haggith’s overview of international housing markets.
Beginning with the fact that banking revenues have already been hit with falling mortgage banking revenues (Wells Fargo -50% and JP Morgan -46%), pending home sales in November and December, with December being -10% worse than November, are expected to be at its lowest level in February 2019 since May 2014.
Here is Haggith’s take on international housing markets:
Canada: In Vancouver, residential property sales have fallen to the lowest levels since the last millennium. Year over year percentage drops from 2017 are averaging more than -30%. The British Columbia Real Estate Association claimed that this drop in home sales was due to mortgage stress testing. Prices are continuing to hold but remember Haggith’s point in Part I of this series…people buy monthly mortgage payments more than they buy prices.
Australia: If Vancouver’s level of residential property sales is at its lowest levels since the last millennium, Melbourne’s home prices have plummeted at the fastest quarterly rate EVER. Melbourne and Sydney represent 50% of the value in the country’s total housing market and “…experts have been left stunned…” according to New.com.au. One analyst anticipates that home price drops may exceed -30% based on the “…revelation from the banking royal commission that almost all mortgages written between 2012-2016 over-assess borrowing capacity.”
Hong Kong: According to Haggith, even the world’s hottest housing market is falling and has “entered a correction.” Home values have fallen nearly -10% since the market peak of August 2018.
Not on Haggith’s list of international housing markets are all European and Middle East markets, all of which, save Germany, are down. Please refer to this week’s two-part series “Good News in the Global Downturn?” for more information about what’s currently going on in global housing markets.
To recap, more than yearlong Harris Real Estate prognostications about happenings in the housing market are in sync with David Haggith’s market observations and conclusions. At best, housing markets are “correcting;” at worst, housing market salad days are over and are in the midst of a “Housing Market Crash 2.0.”