Zillow’s 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey indicated that 50 of real estate experts and economists believe a next recession will occur within 2020.
Among the 100 real estate experts participating in this survey, 19% of those experts actually pinpointed Q3 2020 as the time a recession would “hit.” Some 35% of those experts anticipate a recession in the next two years.
Here is a breakdown on specific quarters and years:
- Q1 2020 – 12% – Q1 2021 – 8%
- Q2 2020 – 9% – Q2 2021 – 10%
- Q3 2020 – 19% – Q3 2021 –10%
- Q4 2020 – 10% – Q4 2021 – 6%
Zillow’s recent Home Price Expectations Survey stated that “A housing slowdown was among the factors rated as the least likely to cause the next recession, chosen by just 12.6% of the panelists who offered an opinion” on this topic.
How would a potential recession/slowdown impact the housing industry? The study indicated…
- That more than 50% of its respondents expect home buying demand to be significantly lower in 2020 than it is currently in 2019. One third of respondents expect home buying demand to be fairly consistent in 2020 to what demand is currently.
- That the combination of slowing demand and impending recession could be good news for potential buyers in the short-term.
- That a further slowdown in demand could affect a slowdown in home value appreciation going forward.
- That the annual growth within the industry to be approximately 4.1% at the end of 2019, 2.8% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2021.
If housing would not be a major factor in an impending recession, what would? Experts participating in this survey and after-the-fact discussions pointed to trade policy, a geopolitical crisis and/or a major shift in the stock market. Again…not housing.
Thanks to Patrick Kearns of InmanNews for source material.