The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) held its first ever Real Estate Forecast Summit recently. NAR surveyed a group of the country’s top economists in order to get their predictions for the economy’s health in 2020. Among the group of top economists attending this Summit, only 29% indicated a probability of recession in 2020.
Take a look at the rationales for this no recession in 2020:
- GDP growth is anticipated to be 2% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021.
- Annual unemployment rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2020 and 3.9% in 2021.
- 69% of attending economists expect there to be no change in interest rates in 2020 while 31% expect there to be lower interest rates in 2020.
- Annual median home prices are expected to increase +3.6% in 2020 and +3.5% in 2021.
- 30-year fixed interest rates are expected to hold at 3.8% in 2020 and 4.0% in 2021.
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Lawrence Yun, the chief economist with NAR, said, “Real estate is on firm ground with little chance of having price decrease. However, in order for the market to be healthier, more supply is needed to assure home prices as well as rents do not consistently outgrow income gains.”
Attending economists did, however, expect apartment rents to rise +3.8% in 2020 and +3.6% in 2021. Commercial real estate prices were also expected to rise in 2020 and 2021 to +3.6% and 3.4% respectively.
Vince Malta, NAR’s president and broker with Malta and Company, Inc. in San Francisco, said, “Residential and commercial real estate investment remains attractive as we approach the start of a new decade. Increased home building can serve as a stimulator for the overall economy, and we strongly encourage more homes to be built as buyer demand remains strong.”
Thanks to builderonline.com for source data.
Also read: Home Prices Mostly Flat in October While Some States Saw Cool Down, Redfin’s Housing Market Forecast for 2020, Podcast: Do YOU Have A Moral Obligation To Be RICH? (Shocking Truth Revealed) Part 3