Key Highlights
- Lawrence Yun, chief economist of National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), said surging 2020 housing market not likely to let up into winter
- Yun spoke at NAR’s 2020 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in mid/late November
In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, high unemployment and an economic recession, “2020 has been a year of surprises,” said Lawrence Yun at the National Association of REALTORS® Conference & Expo during its “Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum.”
Take a look at some of these “surprising” statistics:
- September’s existing home sales increased nearly +21% higher than one year ago
- New home sales increased +32% compared to one year ago
- September’s pending home sales and/or contract signings increased +20.5%
With such a surging housing market, Yun predicted, “This winter may be one of the best winters for sales activity…on a winter-to-winter comparison, this could be one of the best breakout years just based on the fact that pending contracts are at such a higher level.”
Both mortgage applications and home prices in September were up. Mortgage applications increased +20% y/y; the median existing home prices for all housing types was $311,800, an increase of +14.8% compared with last year at this same time.
Here are some of Yun’s predictions concerning the 2021 housing market:
- Mortgage rates: 3.1% (3% for 2020)
- New home sales: +23% (20% for 2020)
- Existing home sales: +9% (+3% for 2020)
- Home prices: +3% (+6% 2020)
- GDP growth: +4% (-5% for 2020)
- Job gains: +3M (-7M for 2020)
- 10-year treasury: 1% (0.9% for 2020)
- Consumer price inflation: 1.5% (1% for 2020)
Here are some of Yun’s thoughts concerning 2021:
- Thinks mortgage rates to stay low into 2021
- Dependent upon a vaccine, economy likely to continue steady recovery despite state-to-state variations AND economy still missing 10M jobs lost in pandemic
- Personal incomes of many buoyed by stimulus checks, unemployment benefits and small business loans and personal savings elevated…”unleashed spending” may happen when vaccine comes
- Due to historic inventory shortages, Yun said, “Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”
- Housing shortages will persist
- Work-from-home trends driving housing preferences
- According to NAR’s 2020 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 47% of clients interested in moving to suburbs or subdivision
- 39% interested in relocating to rural area
- 14% interested in moving to urban area or central city.
Thanks to the National Association of REALTORS® and REALTOR Magazine.
Also read: Home at Risk of Wildfire? Ask These Questions, September Set Records for Price, Sales, New Listings & Speed, Q3 2020 Earnings for Sotheby’s, RE/MAX & Keller Williams
