- CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index for January 2021 indicated national home prices increased +10% y/y
- Annual price increases expected to drop to 3% by end of 2021
National Home Price Overview
The latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report just released indicated that national home prices gained +10% y/y in January 2021. For the month of January, the HPI gain was +4.1% compared to January 2019.
This annual increase of +10% in January 2021 was the highest y/y gain since November 2013. CoreLogic cautioned that affordability concerns and constraints may slow home price growth later into 2021. In fact, CoreLogic forecasts national home price growth to slide to just 3% by the end of this year.
CoreLogic notes that this 2020 recession is behaving much like the 2001 recession. Unlike the six previous recessions, the 2001 and 2020 recessions are the only two recessions in which home prices increased. Home sellers can thank today’s near record-setting tight supplies for those increasing home prices.
Home Prices Grew at All Price Levels
CoreLogic analyzes four price-tier levels relative to the median national home sale price. All four tiers saw prices grow: the lowest price tier increased +14% y/y in January 2021; the low-to-middle price tier saw prices increased +12% (the highest growth rate since 2013 for this low-to-middle tier); the middle-to moderate price tier grew +11.2%; and the high-price tier increase was +10.4%. The lowest, middle-to moderate and high price tier increases were the highest since 2006.
Survey by CoreLogic in February 2021 Found Nearly 76% of US Non-Homeowners Indicate Having No Plans to Buy a House in Next 6 Months
The biggest factor getting in the way of purchasing a home for 43% of survey respondents was affordability constraints, specifically, not having enough money for a down payment and/or mortgage.
Home Price Increase Changes in Top 10 Metros
Phoenix again led the way in having the biggest increase in home prices. Here are the top ten:
- Phoenix +14.8%%
- San Diego +11.0%
- Washington DC +9.1%
- Denver +8.8%
- Los Angeles +8.1%
- Las Vegas 7.9%
- Chicago +7.1%
- Boston +6.9%
- Houston +6.7%
- Miami +5.8%
Top 5 Markets at Risk of Home Price Declines Over Next 12 Months
– Beaumont-Port Arthur TX 75%+ risk
– Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL 50-75% risk
– Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise 75%+ risk
– Corpus Christi TX 75%+ risk
– Lake Charles LA 75%+ risk
Thanks to CoreLogic.
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