Job Growth & Economic Recovery Vary by State

Key Highlights

• Of +22M jobs shed during pandemic shutdown, 58% of jobs recovered
• Recoveries vary by state

Employment Recovery Strongest in Mountain-West

The Mountain-West region of the country has been the bright star in the nation’s employment recovery and growth since the COVID pandemic shutdown in March and April 2020, according to CoreLogic.

Idaho and Utah have added back more jobs than they lost.  Idaho specifically saw just a temporary slowing of its economy plus it has benefitted greatly from in-migration from residents leaving more costly areas, particularly the West Coast.  Montana has added back 83% of jobs lost.

States Reliant on Tourism Much Slower to Rebound

The pandemic lockdown immediately affected all states but particularly affected states reliant on tourism.  With no planes flying, no passengers anywhere, no hotel guests and no in-person restaurant eating, service and hospitality jobs within the tourism industry disappeared seemingly over night.

Hawaii, New Mexico and California and New York were particularly hard hit and continue to lag behind many other states in terms of job growth.

Hawaii has added back only 23% of jobs lost in 2020 while New Mexico has added back just 26% and California 39%.

Mortgage Delinquencies Initially Spiked and Then Reverted

CoreLogic indicated that mortgage delinquencies spiked to its highest rate in over 20 years when the pandemic broke out. Hawaii reported six times the February 2020 delinquency rate in April 2020.

Now, mortgage delinquencies have reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Many borrowers are still behind on mortgage payments but the nation’s CARES Act forbearance plans have protected them from losing their homes and from credit-damaging delinquencies.

Encouraging News for Homeowners

With more than half of jobs lost in 2020 now recovered and with new delinquencies back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy is beginning to look brighter and brighter.

Industry experts are predicting that economic growth in the US during 2021 may be the strongest in 37 years.  Jobs recovery and growth are expected to slower but still positive throughout 2021 and pre-pandemic strong into 2022.

The housing market is projected to continue strong as demand and low interest rates continue through 2021.  CoreLogic itself predicts home prices to slow to +3% by the end of 2021.

Thanks to CoreLogic.

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