New housing starts climbed above 1.6M units in June. The number of issued building permits in almost 50%of metros also increased.

Available For-Sale Inventory Turning a Corner

According to the National Association of REALTORS ® (NAR), nw housing starts exceeded +1.6 units in June 2021.  Building permits also increased in nearly half of all metros NAR tracked for its latest report.

NAR estimated there were 1.25M for-sale housing units on the market in June, an increase of +3.3% from May’s housing inventory.  With more available for-sale inventory from which to choose, homebuyers returned to the market and signed purchase contracts in June thus ending four consecutive months of either flat or declining home sales.

No worries, however, about demand.  The ongoing pandemic and favorable demographics (a huge swath of Millennials reaching the prime home buying ages between 30-35) will only intensify demand for houses.

Nearly 50% of Tracked Metros Issued More Single-Family Permits than Historic Averages

The South is the hub of single-family building in the US.  Both Houston and Dallas issued more that 50,000 single-family permits within their respective metros from July 202 through June 2021.  Both Houston and Dallas had already added more than 50,000 new single-family homes within the last 12 months.

These two metros will need those homes (and then some) to help meet the demands of approximately 140,000 and 200,000 new jobs/workers that have been added in Houston and Dallas, respectively, within this same 12 m months from July 2020 – June 2021.

Top 10 Metro Areas with Most Single Family Permits Issued from July 2020 – June 2021

Single-Family Permits      Forbearance Rates (%)

Houston/Woodlands TX            54,725               8.1

Dallas/Ft Worth/Arlington TX     51,098              10.3

Phoenix/Mesa/Chandler AZ        36,820               4.3

Atlanta/Sandy Springs GA          33,873               6.4

Austin/Round Rock TX                25,343               4.5

Charlotte/Concord NC-SC            19,558               4.6

Tampa/St. Petersburg FL              17,994              5.2

Orlando/Kissimmee FL                  17,366              6.9

Nashville/Davidson TN                   16,526              3.8

Top 10 Metro Areas with Least Single-Family Permits issued July 2020 – June 2021

Altoona PA                                         0                  4.5

Binghamton NY                                   0                  no data

St. Joseph MO-KS                                1                  no data

Elmira NY                                             2                  no data

Johnston PA                                          3                   no data

Wheeling WV-OH                                    5                   4.4

Lima OH                                                 7                    no data

St. Cloud MN                                          7                     3.2

Jackson MI                                              8                      4.6

Pittsfield MA                                             9                      no data

You’ll note that some of the metros where the m out building permits were issued also had a higher forbearance rate than the national level of 4%.  Take, for example, the Dallas metro.  The Dallas metro issued some 51,000 single-family permits while it also had some 10.3% of its active mortgages in forbearance as of March 2021.  The same thing in the Houston metro with about 8.1% of its active  mortgages in forbearance.

The result?  Expect to see for-sale housing inventory rise in the coming months.

Thanks to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).



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