Some of the “Best Places to Live” may not be. There’s no longer a link between economic growth and a city’s popularity.
Population Growth May Not Be Best Way to Measure Health of US Cities
According to the 2020 Census Bureau data, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Las Vegas continued to be popular relocation destinations. The latest Census data also indicated Cincinnati and Buffalo have reversed multiple decades of population declines. St. Louis and Detroit, on the other hand, continued to lose people
But what about measuring a city’s health by assets such as technology, finance, universities, and medical centers that brake and even reverse population declines?
City Health Measurement by GDP Growth?
According to this latest Census data, metros that are booming economically without adding more residents such as Denver, Boston, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Miami, Salt Lake City, Seattle, Portland, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York all averaged higher-than-normal per capita GDP growth of +32.3% by 2019.
Sure, Seattle and Salt Lake City have seen their populations increase but New York, Los Angeles and others have seen no major shifts in population.
And…guess what…several Rust Belt metros (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh) outpaced average per capita GDP gains and also lost residents.
What’s Going On?
It used to be in the mid-20thC there was a direct connection between population growth and economic growth. Booming economies translated into more job creation.
Not so any more. Technology’s rise over the past 50 years has enabled economic productivity without more and more workers.
In the last couple of decades, Rust Belt cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, etc. have invested in knowledge sectors such as tech, finance, and medical and educational services to be on the forefront of today’s economic landscape.
Several Sun Belt Stars Beginning to Lose Sheen
Many “best of” and most popular cities such as the Sun Belt stars (Florida’s twinkling Orlando, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Petersburg, etc., along with Dallas, San Antonio, Las Vegas, and Phoenix) experienced lower than average per capita GDP gains than the country’s 106 largest metros, according to latest Census data.
Usual “winners” on the coasts and Sun Belt metros are beginning to face problems due to lack of affordability and/or a glut of low-skilled workers in environments that demand high-skilled labor.
Meanwhile, Rust Belt and middle of the country metros are generating real economic opportunities without becoming unaffordable and/or unlivable.
According to Pete Saunders writing for Bloomberg, if these mid-country metros aren’t attracting new residents right now, “…they will soon.” Be ready, agents.
Thanks to Bloomberg.
