The days of the Beach Boys and “California Dreamin’” may be over. More dreamers are leaving the state than ever before.
Data collected in the 12 months ending July 2017 by the US Census Bureau tells us that 138,000 people have left the Golden State. And where have these relocating Californians moved? Lower cost states such as Arizona, Texas and Nevada.
As of mid 2017, Texas has gained 79,000 from California, Arizona has gained 63,000 and Nevada has gained 38,000.
Likely those numbers are higher now.
Data collected by United Van Lines from 2015 – 2017 corroborates US Census Bureau data. More Californians moved to Texas, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Nevada and Colorado from California than residents from other states moved into California.
Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of the research and consulting firm Beacon Economics in Los Angeles, said, “According to the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey data, lower income Californians are the ones who are leaving, not the higher income people.”
Research done by the Internal Revenue Service indicates that both middle income and middle age residents of California are also leaving the state. Joel Kotkin, a presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, CA, believes that the numbers of higher income residents may start to rise as well due to the federal tax overhaul that cut state and local tax deductions to $10,000. “They (higher income California residents) are the ones who tend to have high property taxes and rely on writing off those deductions.”
Renters as well as homeowners are also having a tough time in California. According to Zumper, a rental industry tracker, California has 5 of the top 10 most expensive rental markets in the country.
Compare these median monthly rental prices for a 1-bedroom apartment:
Las Vegas – $925
Phoenix – $945
Los Angeles – $2,249
San Francisco – $3,400
In addition to high, high, high home and rental prices, California has the top marginal personal income tax rate, 12.3%, in the country as well as a 1% surcharge for millionaires.
Even with those percentages, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, North Dakota and 5 other states come in higher in terms of tax burdens than California, according to 2015 state and local revenue data tracked by the Federation of Tax Administrators.
Bottom line…there may be more room on those beautiful California beaches.