According to Redfin, sales spiked +10.8% from August 2018 to August 2019, a seventeenth month high as well as the largest increase in sales since last year at this time. Prices are now on trend to growing +1%-3% y/y throughout 2019.
Daryl Fairweather, chief economist with Redfin, said, “Although home price gains remained relatively constant in August, supply and demand are now heading back towards the sellers’ favor. Home sales are accelerating as buyers eat into a diminishing number of homes for sale.”
Only 20 of the 85 largest metros tracked by Redfin saw an increase in supply. Overall, inventory fell -5.7% y/y in August 2019, the biggest decline since April 2018.
The biggest inventory declines in relatively affordable markets included:
- Tacoma – -26.8%
- Salt Lake City – -26.1%
- Tulsa – -24.4%
The biggest inventory increases in markets with home prices above the national median price of $312,200 included:
- San Jose – +12.5%
- Oxnard CA – +11.5%
- Honolulu – +11.4%
Redfin’s lead economist, Taylor Marr, said, “It’s important to remember that in August 2018, prices, sales and inventory were just beginning to indicate the onset of a cooling housing market. With that in mind, last month’s y/y sales increase and inventory decrease are only slightly exaggerated…as new listings and overall inventory declined…(this) tells us that supply is constricting and demand is growing meaningfully, signs that the market is heating up as we head into fall. If not for recession fear, price and sales growth would likely be stronger given this summer’s record-low mortgage rates.”
Do these remarks add up to a seller’s market? Compare these sales and growth percentages over the last year and decide for yourself…
-2.1% in August 2018
-8.0% in December 2018
+10.8% in August 2019