Predictions are tricky. Perhaps that’s the reason many forecasts indicate the next year will be more of the same of the current year.
StreetEasy’s forecast for NYC’s 2020 is just that, “more of the same,” as this Zillow subsidiary predicts that some prospective buyers may be reluctant to use their very stiff leverage due to widespread global unrest/uncertainty (the US November elections, the future of the United Kingdom in light of Brexit and civil volatility in Hong Kong) and a slowing economy.
Remember too that some buyers don’t want to caught in the same “rush to buy too early” position as many buyers were prior to the Lehman Brother bankruptcy and the housing market crash in September 2008 when the Great Recession hit.
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All this being said, here are StreetEasy’s leanings for New York City for this new year:
- StreetEasy predicts continuing trends – a sizzling rental market in 2020.
- 2019 was a banner year for pricey rentals in amenity-rich buildings.
- Rents increased +3.4% in more luxury-type buildings, whereas rents in other buildings increased without such amenity riches increased +2.9%.
- This rental disparity between lux and non-lux rentals indicate to StreeyEasy that wealthier NYC locals will continue to choose renting over owning due to economic uncertainty and little justification for buying.
- StreetEasy predicts continuing trends – a slumping sales market EXCEPT for condominium prices being decreased.
- 2019 ushered in condo clearance sales due to an over supply of luxury condos.
- This oversupply will continue as 5,6000 new units are set to come onto the market in 2020.
- Some lux condos continue to have eye-popping price tags now but StreetEasy predicts these price tags will see “jaw-dropping” price cuts in 2020 just as 2019 saw NYC condo sales drop nearly $.5B off final listing prices.
- StreetEasy predicts more of the same – “some” neighborhoods to be delayed due to scattered efforts to upgrade NYC’s subways from years of maintenance needs.
- It’s no secret that NYC buyers tend to focus their home searches along subway lines.
- Any improved subway efforts in specific neighborhoods will bolster buyer demand in those neighborhoods and hurt others.
- NYC’s MTA announced an improvement plan of $54B in September 2019 – the potential winning neighborhoods may be along the Lexington AVE 4/5/6 line or the Upper East Side and East Harlem as well as the Eastern Parkway line benefiting Crown Heights over Bedford Stuyvesant.
- StreetEasy predicts that new business districts will likely transform certain neighborhoods.
- New home construction for employees of Google and Disney’s new streaming service in the Hudson Square neighborhood.
- The Brooklyn Navy Yard and Downtown Brooklyn may become major community development destinations as Amazon, Apple and Facebook move in.
- Etsy, Genius and Kickstarter are also seen as potential new neighbors in Brooklyn as well.