Key Highlights

  • Zillow anticipates 27.4% currently owner-occupied homes likely to hit the market over the next 20years
  • Zillow estimates 33.9% of owner-occupied homes are owned by those 60 years and older and that 55.2% of owner-occupied homes are owned by those 50 years and older – some 20M homes likely to hit the market by 2030’s
  • Zillow also estimates the most favorable markets for Tech Expansion to be in “Silicon Prairie”, the Midwest and the South

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We’ve discussed the pending “Silver Tsunami” before. With 55.2% of owner-occupied homes being owned by those 50 years and older and 33.9% being owned by those 60 years and up, it’s more than likely that millions of owner-occupied homes will hit the for-sale market over the next 20 years despite the increasing trend of older people choosing to “age-in-place” in their family homes. Eventually, these older owners will pass and/or will not be able to maintain themselves in their current homes.

Areas and cities likely to be hardest hit by the Silver Tsunami exodus will be exclusive retirement enclaves in smaller, expensive markets, retirement hubs and regions where young people have left. Hardest hit areas will likely include…

  • Exclusive enclaves such as Palm Springs, Nantucket, the Hamptons, the Upper East Side of Manhattan and the Bay Area’s Lafayette-Orinda- Walnut Creek
  • Retirement hubs such as Tucson, Miami, Orlando and Tampa
  • And Knoxville, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Greensboro and Albuquerque

The least affected areas will be areas where vibrant economies, affordable housing and fast growth are occurring such as…

  • Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and El Paso
  • Atlanta, Raleigh, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Nashville and Denver

Concurrently, the country’s “Tech Expansion” over the coming 20 – 30 years will also impact housing markets. Some of the most favorable markets likely touched by Tech Expansion overlap Silver Tsunami markets. For these cause and effect markets, Zillow focused on market conditions such as…

  • housing affordability
  • “hotness” or the potential to attract and keep both locals and new migrants
  • robust local economies with younger demographics and bustling labor market
  • tech availability where there is less competition for talent
  • livability

Key areas include cities in the “Silicon Prairie” such as Oklahoma City and Kansas City and areas in the Midwest and South. Likely target cities include…

  • Southern markets such as Jacksonville, Austin, San Antonio and Cincinnati
  • Affordable markets such as St. Louis, Oklahoma City and Pittsburgh
  • Affordable markets such as Las Vegas, Jacksonville and Tampa
  • Labor-ready markets such as Austin, Orlando and the Bay Area
  • Tech available markets including Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Memphis
  • Livable markets such as Raleigh, Salt Lake City and Kansas City

Interesting that the aging of America and the dawning of tech expansion to periphery cities are in many ways complementary.

Thanks to Zillow’s Issi Romen and Cheryl Young for source data.

Also read: Podcast: Suzanne Fuqua Exclusive Interview, Podcast: The Truth (vs Lies) About Rich People | Breaking Into The High End, Markets That Changed The Most This Decade