Key Highlights

  • National home prices jumped +6.7% y/y in September, according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index
  • CoreLogic forecasts home prices to slow to +0.2% from September 2020 to September 2021

National home prices increased +6.7% y/y in September, according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index (HPI). This was the highest year-over-year home price gain since May 2014.

States with the highest increases y/y included Idaho (+11.8%), Arizona +11%), and Maine (+11%). No states had annual home price declines. Phoenix led the way for cities experiencing home price hikes with an increase of +11/1% y/y.

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One of the reasons for this home price jump was the seemingly omnipresent for-sale inventory shortage throughout the nation. CoreLogic’s HPI indicated for-sale inventory in September dropped to the lowest level in at least 38 years. According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), for-sale inventory in September 2020 fell to -40% of inventory supply seen in September of 2008 and to -75% of that seen in September 2020.

CoreLogic analyzes four home-price tiers to develop its national home sale price. In September, all four of these price tiers increased to their respective highest rates since 2014. Take a look:

  • Lowest price tier – +10% y/y in September
  • Low-to-middle price tier – +8.2% in September
  • Middle –to-moderate price tier – +7.6% in September
  • High-price tier – +5.5%

This home price jump, however, may soon come to a close as CoreLogic predicted in this latest HPI that home prices would dramatically slow to an increase of just +0.2% by September 2021. Via CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update on the health of specific housing markets throughout the country, metros such as Las Vegas and Miami that have been hit hard in the tourist and hospitality sectors of their respective economies will be at greatest risk (above 70%) of price declines over the nest 12 months. In addition to Las Vegas and Miami, CoreLogic sees high risk of home price declines in Lake Charles LA, Springfield MA and Prescott AZ.

Thanks to CoreLogic.

Also read: Typical Mortgage Payment Dipping Below 2018 Levels, 77% of Metros See Double-Digit Annual Home Price Gains in Q3, More Than Quarter of Homebuyers Looking to Move

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