Key Highlights

  • Latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports +12% y/y gain in home prices in February
  • Ninth consecutive month of increasing home prices

US Home Prices Increased +12% y/y in February

For the ninth straight month, home prices in the US increased. During February 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), home prices surged to an annual gain of +12%.

This +12% home price gain is the highest-ever recorded increase in home prices since February 2006.

Most Competitive Housing Market Since Great Recession

CoreLogics HPI 20-city composite posted an increase of +11.9% y/y.  Its 10-city composite posted an increase of +11.7%.

Home prices nationwide including distressed sales increased +10.4% in February 2021 compared with February 2020.  Month-over-month, home prices increased +1.2% compared with January 2021.

According to Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic, “Homebuyers are experiencing the most competitive housing market we’ve seen since the Great Recession. Rising mortgage rates and severe supply constraints are pushing already-overheated home prices out of reach for some prospective buyers, especially in more expensive metro areas. As affordability challenges persist, we may see more potential homebuyers priced out of the market and a possible slowing of price growth on the horizon.”

National Home Price Forecast

The HPI indicates that home prices will rise +0.6% from February 2021 to March 2021.  On a year-over-year basis, the HPI predicts home prices to increase +3.2%.

COVID Impact on Home Price

Housing demand continued to increase in February. The result?  The highest annual gain in home prices since April 2006.

Homebuyers continued to move outward from densely populated, high-cost coastal areas to more affordable suburban locales.  CoreLogic indicated that 21% of homebuyers in the top 10 metros with the largest net-out migrations chose to relocate to another metro area.

Top 10 States with Largest Home Price Changes

Idaho                    22.6% y/y

Montana               19.5% y/y

South Dakota        17.1% y/y

Arizona                 16.0% y/y

Indiana                 16.0% y/y

Indiana                 16.0% y/y

New Hampshire      15.9% y/y

Maine                    15.7% y/y

Utah                      15.1% y/y

Connecticut            14.8% y/y

Rhode Island          14.5% y/y

Every region of the country posted double-digit price gains with the West leading at +13% and the Southwest coming in at +12.9%

Top 10 Metros with Largest Home Price Changes

Phoenix                16.2% y/y

San Diego             12.3% y/y

Denver                  10.0% y/y

Washington DC       9.6% y/y

Las Vegas               8.5% y/y

Los Angeles            8.2% y/y

Boston                   7.0% y/y

Miami                     7.0% y/y

Houston                  6.3% y/y

Chicago                   6.3% y/y

(Seattle also posted very high price gains but for some unknown reason, CoreLogic did not reflect those gains in its report.)

Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

Brownsville-Harlingen TX

Beaumont-Port Arthur TX

Lake Charles LA

New Haven-Milford CT

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL

 

Thanks to CoreLogic and HousingWire.

 

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