Home Price Forecasting Through April 2022

Key Highlights

• CoreLogic Home Price Insights (HPI) report features with price forecasts through April 2022
• CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project crystal gazing for both single-family attached and detached and single-family combines excluding distressed sales

CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Includes Price Projections through April 2022

According to the latest monthly CoreLogic Home Price Insights (HPI) report, home prices, including distressed sales, across the country jumped +13% y/y in April 2021.  The month-over-month increase hit +2.1%

National Forecast Prices

The CoreLogic HPI expects month-to-month home price increases to come in at +1.1%.  On a year-to-year basis, the HPI expects home prices to increase some +2.8% from April 2021 to April 2022.

Currently, the HPI projects home prices to rise +2.1% m/m and +13.0% y/y.

In terms of the next year out, the HPI projects home prices to increase +1.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

What About Aging Homeowners?

According to CoreLogic’s President and CEO Frank Martell, “…older homeowners…are faced with the reality that…they may get a smaller home for the same price as what they already have.  Rather than decreasing their financial burden and cashing out equity to support their retirement, baby boomers may choose to stay put – which could exacerbate inventory challenges.”

Pandemic Impact on Home Prices

Home prices continue to be pushed higher and higher by high demand and much too sparse inventory.

Millennials are continuing to drive the market with its younger cohort entering the housing market for the first time and its older cohort looking to upgrade and upsize their homes.  64% of all Millennials, younger and older, want more living space.

Boomers, on the other hand, are interested in downsizing.  72% of these downsizing Boomers are motivated by the desire for a new location.  The problem, however, is that Boomers may choose to simply stay put in their existing home rather than selling.  Most downsizing Boomers are not interested in paying more to get and live in “less” house

This choice to stay put may well become a problem for all potential buyers but particularly the older Millennials who want to “move-up.”  With Boomers owning 54% of the nation’s homes, a choice to stay in place puts even more pressure on already near- record inventory lows.

Case in point, CoreLogic’s latest consumer survey indicates that owner-occupants have been living in their homes for a median of 13 years, some 50% longer than the previous generation.

States & Metros with Highest Y/Y Price Increases

Home prices jumped +13% y/y in April.  Not one state posted y/y home price declines.

States with the highest y/y price increases included:

• Idaho – +27.2%
• Arizona – +20.4%
• South Dakota – +19.3%

The top 10 metros with the highest y/y price increases included:

• Phoenix – +20.7%
• San Diego – +16.1%
• Denver – +13.8%
• Washington DC – +10.9%
• Las Vegas – +10.5%
• Los Angeles – +9.8%
• Boston – +7.9%
• Miami – +7.6%
• Chicago – +5.8%
• Houston – +5.8%

Disparities in Affordability Continue to Haunt Some Metros

It’s important to note that home prices in San Diego jumped +16.1% y/y in April 2021 AND that San Diego’s prices are forecast to jump an additional +10.1% through April 2022.

It’s also important to note that Houston, hard hit by the oil industry collapse and last year’s hurricane season, is forecast to see its home prices drop -0.9% by April 2022.

Also pay attention to metros such as Hartford CT, Longview TX, Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT, Miami FL and Norwich-New London CT.  These metros, according to CoreLogic, are at the highest risk of declining home prices during the coming 12 months.

Thanks to CoreLogic.

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