Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers and Consultants is, according to The Real Deal, likely the most well known real estate appraiser in New York. Jonathan Miller, co-founder of Miller Samuel, is also one of the most well liked and most frequently quoted appraisers in NY, according to the Observer.
Here’s some of what Miller had to say to CNBC about the housing market during the first week of August 2018:
- The market’s been slowing for the last 3-4 quarters.
- Lack of affordability and the new tax law are the culprits.
- Price points are softer at the top of the market and tighter in middle.
- New luxury pricing is now more in tune with the overall market.
- Buyers are now in control.
- Renters are becoming more in control due to expanding landlord concessions to ward off vacancies.
- “It’s going to take about a year of price discovery before the market settles.”
Here’s what some the most recent data from multiple sources tells us:
- Median home price for single-family homes in June 2018 was $276,000 and DOM stood at 26, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
- Homeownership rates rose to 64.3% in June 2018 compared to 63.7% in June 2017, according to the US Census Bureau. Even though homeownership rates are at their highest levels in 4 years, they are still a full percentage point below a 50-year average.
- Existing home sales dropped in June 2018 for the third straight month. This is the slowest pace of sales in 8 months.
- Home prices climbed +6.4% in May 2018, the smallest y/y gain since early 2017 and with the smallest gains over a 3-month period since 2012, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
- Redfin is seeing substantial increases in home inventories around the country.
- San Jose inventory up +12% in June 2018 compared to June 2017.
- Seattle inventory up +24% in June 2018 compared to June 2017
- Portland OR inventory up +32% in June 2018 compared to June 2017
- University of Michigan gives new warnings about latest consumer sentiment data. In July 2018, just 65% of consumers said it was a good time to buy a home, the lowest percentage since 2008 when the economy was still in recession.
Here are some words from the wise to add to your own thinking about the housing market:
- Ed Stansfeld, chief property economist with Capital Economics, Ltd. in London said, “Home prices are plateauing…we’re now looking at a period in which prices move more or less sideways, or increase no more quickly than growth in incomes, over the next few years.”
- Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, “The rate of home sales, new and existing, has probably peaked. But it’s not going to roll over. It will gently decline.”
- Robert Shiller, Noble Prize winning economist who famously forewarned us of the dot.com and housing bubbles, said, “This would be the very beginning of a turning point…” all the while stressing that he’s not ready to make that call…yet.
