Domestic migration patterns from 2000-2019 have definitely impacted the housing markets within the four regions of the country, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Take a look:
- South – net migration gain – +7.2M
- Midwest – net migration loss – 3.4M
- Northeast – net migration loss – nearly 5M
- West – net migration gain – +1.2M
Looking at how these migration patterns have affected home values from 2000-2019, NAR indicates…
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- South – from 36% in 2000 to 43% in 2019
- Midwest – from 24% in 2000 to 24% in 2019
- Northeast – from 18% in 2000 to 13% in 2019
- West – from 23% in 2000 to 21% in 2019
Looking at migration patterns from 2018 to 2019 alone, NAR found…
- South – gained 263,000 people in just one year – This is the largest increase in domestic net migration during this one-year period.
- Midwest – though the Midwest had a net migration deficit from 2000 until the present, there has been an increase of 17,000 people to the region this year.
- Northeast – lost 238,000 this year alone.
- West – lost 41,000 this year. The bulk of this population loss is 30 – 44 years old and without a college or professional degree.
States where the median property values are below $250,000 are continuing to gain net in-migration due to affordability. These states include Florida, Texas, Arizona, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho and Minnesota.
States where the median property values are above $250,000 are experiencing net out-migration. These states include California, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Virginia and Hawaii.
Some states that have low property values are also experiencing net out-migration. These states include Illinois, Mississippi, Louisiana, West Virginia, Ohio, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Pennsylvania and North Dakota.
Clearly, there is a positive association between job growth and net in-migration.
- Florida has attracted 2.4M along with its 32% increase of 2.1M jobs. The state is also attracting movers from New York, California, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Illinois primarily due to lower tax rates.
- Texas has attracted +2.0M people and created even more jobs. Those new jobs, +3.7M, represent an increase of +40%. Texas is also attracting movers from California, Florida, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri.
- North Carolina has attracted 1.1M people this year and seen an increase of 20% in 798,500 new jobs.
- Arizona has attracted 1.1M people along with 791,700 (+36%) new jobs this year.
Year/year changes in median existing sales price from 2018-2019 look like this, again according to NAR:
- US – +6.17%
- South – +6.0%
- Midwest – +6.66%
- Northeast – +5.66%
- West – +7.77%
Thanks to NAR for source data.